DTN's Quick Takes

By Todd Hultman
DTN Analyst
and
Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst
and
Rick Kment
DTN Analyst

Grains

OMAHA (DTN) -- As we near the close, March corn is down 2 1/4 cents, March soybeans are down 5 1/2 cents, and March Chicago wheat is down 6 1/2 cents. Grains have hardly budged in the past hour and look ready to close down on the day and for the week. One bright spot of higher prices this week will likely be March soybean oil, threatening to post its highest close in over seven weeks. USDA said Friday that biodiesel exports were up 6% in 2015 from a year ago.

Posted 11:46 -- March corn is down 2 cents, March soybeans are down 5 3/4 cents, and March Chicago wheat is down 6 3/4 cents. Trading in corn and wheat has been flat since 10 a.m. while soybeans have slowly trickled lower. This week's lower grain prices have been more about lethargic demand than eager selling as good weather in South America has taken away any bullish hopes for short-term gains. The U.S. dollar index is trading up .65, but could still post its lowest weekly close in over three months.

Posted 09:45 -- March corn is down 3/4 cent, March soybeans are down 3/4 cent, and March Chicago wheat is down 5 1/4 cents. Row crops are staying steady to lower which is curious, given the favorable reports from South America. USDA's attache in Argentina bumped up the soybean crop estimate from 57.0 mmt to 58.5 mmt -- a number that USDA may or may not agree with on Tuesday, but confirms favorable crop conditions.

Posted 08:40 -- After the 8:30 bell, March corn is down 2 cents, March soybeans are down 1 3/4 cents, and March Chicago wheat is down 5 1/4 cents. Grains are starting lower with the U.S. dollar index trading up .49 in response to news that January's U.S. unemployment rate was the lowest in eight years. Also, Argentina is expecting rain from Sunday into early next week, a favorable forecast for row crop conditions.

Posetd 07:36 -- The January Nonfarm Payroll number came in at 151,000, well below the average estimate ranging from 180,000 to 185,000. Also, the December number was revised to 262,000 from the previous 292,000. All this was initially viewed as bearish, with DJIA futures falling to a loss of 50 points while the U.S. dollar index (USDX) dropped to a loss of 0.150. However, January unemployment rate came in at 4.9%, down from December’s 5.0% and sparked a rally in the USDX back to plus 0.200. Commodities have shown little reaction with gold still showing a gain of about $3.00, crude oil near unchanged, and grains fractionally mixed to 2 cents higher (soybeans) shortly before the close of the overnight session.

Livestock

Posted 12:18 -- Feeder cattle futures have tumbled sharply lower late Friday morning with aggressive triple-digit losses seen in all contract months. The pressure through the feeder cattle futures market has had a bearish impact on nearby live cattle futures, resulting in strong price pressure in April and June live cattle futures at midday, although deferred live cattle futures still remain moderately lower in light trade. Lean hog futures continue to wander toward the end of the week in directionless activity with mixed trade keeping price ranges narrow. Trade activity through the rest of the session is expected to remain light Friday.

Posted 10:46 -- Losses in feeder cattle futures have moderated through midmorning with nearby contracts backing away from early pressure as prices are holding 20 to 32 cent per cwt pressure. The lack of trade activity Friday morning is creating a wait and see approach through most of the complex, which may limit additional market direction through all contracts, while there is still interest on the live cattle market. April live cattle futures are leading the live cattle complex lower with an 85-cent loss, although the lack of depth below this shift seems to be focusing on the potential for additional late-session market shifts as traders try to square positions ahead of the weekend. Lean hog futures remain at a standstill, directionless in narrowly mixed trade.

Posted 09:35 -- Lean hog futures continue to remain mixed in a narrow range as nearby contracts have firmed as markets focus on the ability to draw cash market support at the end of the week. Cattle futures remain under pressure, but have backed away from early losses, as trade volume has remained light. February live cattle futures are holding 50 cent losses with traders comfortable keeping prices in the current trading range, although there continues to be significant focus on cash market direction through the rest of the day.

(KA)

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