DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed down 3 cents in the December contract and down 3 1/4 cents in the July. Soybeans closed down 1/2 cent in the January contract and down 1/4 cent in the July. Wheat closed down 9 1/4 cents in the March Chicago contract, down 5 1/2 cents in the March Kansas City, and down 6 cents in the March Minneapolis contract.

The December U.S. dollar index is down .21 at 99.64. December gold is up $7.40 at $1,074.20 while December silver is up $.13 and December copper is up $.0470. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 42 at 17,834. January crude oil is up $1.08 at $42.83. January heating oil is up .0287 while January RBOB gasoline is up $.0754 and January natural gas is down .016.

Corn:

March corn closed lower on light, pre-holiday volume. Markets awoke to news early Tuesday that Turkey shot down a Russian jet near Turkey's border with Syria. Gold and crude oil responded by trading moderately higher early, but grains remained unfazed. Just as many will be sitting down to a noon meal on Thursday, snow and rain will be covering much of the Midwest, likely causing some scramble on Tuesday and Wednesday to cover outdoor grain piles. With plenty of corn available after this fall's harvest, farmer-reluctance to sell at these low prices holds out the best hope for steadily higher prices through winter. March corn remains under bearish pressure, but is reluctant to extend contract lows, thanks to increased commercial interest. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.47 Monday, priced 20 cents below the December contract and will stay below the 200-day average on Tuesday evening. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down .25, staying shy of the 100-point mark while many continue to expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates in December.

Soybeans:

January soybeans closed slightly lower Tuesday, but are still finding support after Monday's unexpected outside reversal. Uncertainty remains over what changes Argentina's new president will enact regarding soybean sales, and we should get his decision on December 10 when he takes office. In the meantime, DTN Correspondent Alastair Stewart reported Monday that Brazil's soybean planting pace was the slowest since 2008, a more practical concern that is making the short side of the market a bit nervous. Monday's outside reversal higher was technically bullish price behavior, an important sign that commercials are attracted to these cheap prices -- even in this uncertain fundamental environment. Aside from Argentina and Brazil's late planting schedule, China's purchases have been carefully metered lately, adding to the bearish drama. January soybeans remain under bearish pressure, but should have support at Monday's low. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.19 Monday, priced 45 cents below the November contract and below the 200-day average.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat closed lower Tuesday, erasing Monday's gain with moderate to heavy precipitation on the way to the Southern Plains this week, bringing nearly eight inches of rain to southeastern Oklahoma. Light to moderate amounts will also benefit winter wheat crops in the Pacific Northwest. Late Monday, USDA said that 53% of the winter wheat was rated good to excellent, down from a year ago, but still able to go either direction in the spring. Crop areas in Ukraine and southern Russia also received precipitation lately, but this year's dry start has many expecting a smaller crop in the spring. March Chicago wheat continues to trade sideways with active commercial support below $5.00. For more discussion, see Tuesday's DTN article, "Closer Look at Wheat Supplies." DTN's National SRW Wheat Index closed at $4.49 Monday, priced 46 cents below the December contract and will remain below the 200-day average on Tuesday evening. DTN's National HRW Wheat Index closed at $4.13 Monday, staying below its 200-day average since early July.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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