DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Prices for All Retail Fertilizers Creep Higher

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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Starter fertilizer now runs about 15% ahead of year-ago prices, according to DTN's weekly survey of retailers nationwide. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- All retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the second week of January 2015 edged slightly higher compared to a month earlier, DTN's latest national survey found.

However, prices for none of the eight fertilizers registered a move of any significance, with DAP averaging $566 per ton, MAP $594/ton, potash $486/ton and urea $465/ton. 10-34-0 had an average price of $581/ton, anhydrous $710/ton, UAN28 $325/ton and UAN32 $364/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.51/lb.N, anhydrous $0.43/lb.N, UAN28 $0.58/lb.N and UAN32 $0.57/lb.N.

Retailers report slightly higher prices and somewhat fewer farmers willing to pre-order fertilizer. Jim Maier, owner of Dakota Grain located in Elgin, N.D., said retail fertilizer prices have been "creeping up" in recent weeks and this movement should continue in the near term. The historic trend is for fertilizer prices to increase through winter months to spring time, he said.

Despite this fact, many of his farmer/customers are not very excited about locking in fertilizer prices, at least not yet.

"Farmers have been skeptical buyers so far, and I would guess our percentage of folks who locked in fertilizer already is lower at this point of time compared to past years," Maier told DTN.

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Maier said there is an interesting dynamic at work as far as who is pre-purchasing their fertilizer needs in his region of south-central North Dakota this winter and who is not.

Farmers who grow grains are more willing to lock in fertilizer than those farmers who also have livestock, specifically those with beef cattle. The farmers with cattle are more willing to postpone fertilizer purchases as they are reaping the benefit of high cattle prices and have some additional income. Strictly grain growers don't have this luxury and are more willing to lock in fertilizer to save some money, Maier said.

"It is a pretty distinct difference," he said. "It is a good time to have cattle."

Half of the eight major fertilizers are now double digits higher in price compared to January 2014, all while commodity prices are significantly lower from a year ago. DAP, 10-34-0 and anhydrous are all now 15% more expensive while MAP is 14% more, potash is 3% higher and UAN28 is 1% more expensive.

Two nutrients are still lower compared to retail prices from a year ago. Both urea and UAN32 are 1% less expensive from a year previous.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Jan 13-17 2014 493.34 519.89 471.73 465.01
Feb 10-14 2014 527.78 553.92 470.46 508.67
Mar 10-14 2014 558.45 577.13 473.87 533.23
Apr 7-11 2014 584.87 605.54 475.15 548.32
May 5-9 2014 594.55 630.61 479.49 559.25
June 2-6 2014 596.82 631.02 482.42 543.64
June 30-July 4 2014 592.12 623.37 483.44 535.10
July 28-Aug 1 2014 587.31 609.74 475.58 519.21
August 25-29 2014 586.52 607.17 475.65 516.29
Sept 22-26 2014 579.22 599.82 475.64 509.56
Oct 20-24 2014 582.46 598.88 477.43 506.85
Nov 17-21 2014 575.78 594.94 479.35 492.80
Dec 15-19 2014 564.72 591.67 482.39 461.09
Jan 12-16 2015 565.90 594.21 485.53 464.81
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Jan 13-17 2014 504.00 614.97 320.62 366.78
Feb 10-14 2014 505.05 619.93 338.07 383.38
Mar 10-14 2014 514.72 626.75 345.11 391.51
Apr 7-11 2014 516.49 675.28 351.74 397.89
May 5-9 2014 550.88 698.48 353.18 405.52
June 2-6 2014 561.77 707.91 356.91 404.41
June 30-July 4 2014 564.07 694.07 352.39 401.29
July 28-Aug 1 2014 542.15 670.65 338.26 379.15
August 25-29 2014 555.46 698.82 332.67 377.29
Sept 22-26 2014 554.72 694.20 329.21 377.16
Oct 20-24 2014 556.89 696.76 326.78 369.01
Nov 17-21 2014 559.98 708.90 322.12 366.39
Dec 15-19 2014 571.32 704.60 322.03 361.80
Jan 12-16 2015 581.47 709.78 324.72 364.26

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(MZT/AG)

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Russ Quinn