DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer sellers tracked by DTN for the first week of September 2015 show prices still are on the decline.

All eight of the major fertilizers slid lower in price compared to a month earlier. As was the case for the last several weeks, both urea and UAN28 registered significant price decreases.

UAN28 was 8% less while urea was 5% lower compared to a month earlier. UAN28 averaged $304/ton and urea $$439/ton.

The remaining six fertilizers had lower prices but these moves were fairly slight. DAP averaged $564/ton, MAP $583/ton, potash $471/ton, 10-34-0 $602/ton, anhydrous $659/ton and UAN32 $349/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.48/lb.N, anhydrous $0.40/lb.N, UAN28 $0.54/lb.N and UAN32 $0.55/lb.N.

Last week, DTN interviewed growers who had purchased some of their fertilizer needs. While lower prices have prompted some farmers to lock in their fertilizers, not all are excited about paying current price levels.

Jeremy Flikkema, who farms near Landmark, Illinois, told DTN he is glad fertilizer prices are declining but he also feels prices should be lower. Because of this he has not locked in any fertilizer yet.

"I feel it should be getting cheaper due to the lower corn price, lower energy costs, a higher dollar and the Chinese slowdown," Flikkema said. "No retailer has given a good answer why these factors haven't affected the fertilizer price yet."

Flikkema said he will buy some fertilizer for maintenance levels but only if he can get it purchased with good value. Farmers will be doing some extra shopping for the best fertilizer deal with such negative margins, he said.

"The market can't sustain its current price and expect the demand to continue, the cost cutting (by farmers) has already started in this area," he said. "Any 'extras' like ammonium sulfate are going to be cut in my opinion."

With retail fertilizer moving lower in recent weeks, only one fertilizer is now higher compared to a year earlier. 10-34-0 is 9% above last year.

The remaining seven nutrients are now lower compared to retail prices from a year ago. Potash is 1% lower, both MAP and DAP are 3% less expensive, anhydrous is 4% lower, UAN32 is 7% less expensive, UAN28 is down 8% and urea is 15% less expensive versus a year ago.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer prices in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Sept 1-5 2014	581	599	475	517
Sept 29-Oct 3 2014	579	599	478	514
Oct 27-31 2014	579	598	478	503
Nov 24-28 2014	576	595	480	492
Dec 22-26 2014	566	593	485	462
Jan 19-23 2015	568	596	487	469
Feb 16-20 2015	568	597	495	472
Mar 16-20 2015	570	597	490	470
Apr 13-17 2015	570	598	491	453
May 11-15 2015	570	598	491	457
June 8-12 2015	571	598	491	461
July 6-10 2015	570	596	489	470
Aug 3-7 2015	567	591	482	464
Aug 31-Sept 4 2015	564	583	471	439
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Sept 1-5 2014	555	683	330	377
Sept 29-Oct 3 2014	556	695	328	374
Oct 27-31 2014	558	701	327	373
Nov 24-28 2014	564	712	323	368
Dec 22-26 2014	573	706	320	362
Jan 19-23 2015	585	707	326	367
Feb 16-20 2015	593	706	330	370
Mar 16-20 2015	614	705	332	368
Apr 13-17 2015	649	711	332	370
May 11-15 2015	653	711	331	371
June 8-12 2015	649	709	331	371
July 6-10 2015	640	695	327	366
Aug 3-7 2015	628	677	318	354
Aug 31-Sept 4 2015	602	659	304	349

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(MZT/CZ)

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