Drought Perspectives

Soil Moisture Concerns Persist in Plains

Todd Neeley
By  Todd Neeley , DTN Staff Reporter
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Many areas of the Southern Plains are entering what is the fourth year of drought, according to Mike Hayes, director of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. (DTN file photo by Chris Clayton)

LINCOLN, Neb. (DTN) -- Twitter was abuzz last week as gusty winds across the Southern Plains whipped up dust storms reminiscent of the 1930s. Tweets from Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma documented how drought conditions have persisted, though national headlines have mostly focused on drought in California.

Many areas of the Southern Plains are entering what is the fourth year of drought, Mike Hayes, director of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, said during a drought symposium in Lincoln, Neb., Wednesday.

Hayes said the center has been getting feedback on its website of a tragedy developing on the Southern Plains: soil being carried away.

"History is repeating itself," Hayes said. "These are people's livelihoods, and it's happening now. It may not be the Dust Bowl, but it's affecting people's lives."

Mark Svoboda, the NDMC's monitoring program area leader, said there are parts of eastern Nebraska, for instance, that have seen only an inch of moisture since the first of the year.

"We still have a situation developing in the Plains," he said. "We do have some real soil moisture concerns. It kind of sneaks up on you."

Though the 2012 drought drew national attention because it covered more than half of the country, officials from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, and University of Nebraska said recent drought has to be considered in historical context.

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Sherilyn Fritz, a professor of earth and atmospheric sciences at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, said historical records including lake sediments and tree-ring data, reflect drought periods in the past several thousand years that were longer-lasting and more severe.

For example, she said, there is evidence that some droughts lasted for 100-year periods. When it comes to the Great Plains, tree-ring data suggests there was a so-called 'mega-drought' from 1122 to 1299. As far back as 4,300 years ago, however, Fritz said data suggests there were long wet periods in the Great Plains -- indicating that drought has waxed and waned for hundreds of years.

The Great Plains includes Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, eastern Colorado, all of Kansas, all but eastern Oklahoma, north Texas and the Texas panhandle.

A 2013 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, concluded that the intensity and frequency of drought has decreased in the northern and central Plains.

While communities need to better take steps to mitigate the effects of drought before it takes hold, Marty Hoerling, a scientist with NOAA based in Boulder, Colo., said forecasting drought continues to be a challenge.

"Recent droughts tell us nothing of the future," he said. "Are we going back to the '50s and '30s, or will we submerge into climate change?"

When it comes to the Great Plains, Hoerling said precipitation has been on the decline since the 1930s.

The 2012 drought was widespread and in many parts of the country including the Southern Plains, it has maintained its grip, he said. However, Hoerling said the drought was not as widespread as it was in the '50s and '30s.

By June 2012, the drought encompassed 54.6% of the country at its height. In comparison, the drought of 1988, he said, covered 52.3% of the country. In July 1934, however, Hoerling said nearly 80% of the country was in drought.

"Natural conditions continue to rule the variability in drought," he said. "The Plains' rainy season hasn't warmed much yet, although the Plains' winter has warmed substantially."

As the climate continues to change, Hoerling said, there is a risk toward a drier and more arid climate.

"The climate that does unfold will be different not because of precipitation but because of temperature," he said.

Todd Neeley can be reached at todd.neeley@dtn.com

Follow Todd Neeley on Twitter @toddneeleyDTN

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Todd Neeley

Todd Neeley
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