DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

All Retail Fertilizers Slightly Lower

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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So far only potash shows a steep price discount compared to a year ago, but other fertilizers should adjust soon, retailers report.

OMAHA (DTN) -- After several months of holding steady, retail fertilizer prices are moving lower, according to retailers tracked by DTN for the third week of July 2014. This is no surprise as retailers have reported lower prices should be on the horizon with lower commodity prices.

All eight of the major fertilizers slipped lower compared to last month, the first time the eight have been lower at the same time. While all fertilizer prices eased, none were down any significant amount.

DAP had an average price of $591/ton, MAP $618/ton, potash $482/ton, urea $535/ton, 10-34-0 $557/ton, anhydrous $684/ton, UAN28 $348/ton and UAN32 $400/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.58/lb.N, anhydrous $0.42/lb.N, UAN28 $0.62/lb.N and UAN32 $0.62/lb.N.

Input suppliers told DTN in recent weeks it was only a matter of time before retail fertilizer prices began to decline following the recent commodity price crash. When commodity prices -- mainly corn -- climb in price, it seems like fertilizer climbs just as fast, but when corn prices fall, fertilizer prices take some time to adjust.

Why does this situation exist? DTN Senior Grains Analyst Darin Newsom has a theory.

When both corn and fertilizer markets are rising, farmers want to make sure they produce all the corn bushels they possibly can to take advantage of high corn prices. Because of this, increasing demand for fertilizer is present with the corn market rising and retail prices for fertilizers rise generally as fast as corn prices climb, he said.

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"Fertilizer prices climb as corn goes higher on the idea demand from corn producers will stay strong in hopes of maximizing yields," Newsom said.

On the other end of the spectrum when the corn market is declining, fertilizer demand is still a factor. Newsom said the only question here would be how much fertilizer they will utilize.

"When corn goes down, fertilizer is slower to follow due to expectations of continued [fertilizer] demand into the next year," he said. That creates a floor on prices.

Another factor in this situation is the cost to produce fertilizer. Fertilizer manufacturers have various production costs and shipping costs and these established costs also keep fertilizer prices from dropping as much as the grain market can fall, Newsom said.

Although fertilizers moved higher earlier in the year, just two of the eight major fertilizers are now double-digits lower in price compared to July of 2013.

DAP is now nearly unchanged from last year, urea is 2% less expensive and MAP is 3% less expensive. UAN32 is down 6% while both UAN28 and 10-34-0 are now 8% lower. Anhydrous is now 10% less expensive while potash is down 16% compared to a year earlier.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to Nov. of 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Aug 12-16 2013 570.74 607.39 554.17 498.90
Sept 9-13 2013 541.33 585.70 516.74 469.36
Oct 7-11, 2013 524.49 566.67 493.45 442.04
Nov 4-8 2013 518.62 563.77 490.79 439.94
Dec 2-6 2013 514.59 553.69 485.27 439.53
Dec 30 2013-Jan 3 2014 493.76 518.84 475.98 450.88
Jan 27-31 2014 515.68 541.87 470.83 494.95
Feb 24-28 2014 541.13 561.43 472.44 521.67
Mar 24-28 2014 572.80 594.86 474.39 542.38
Apr 21-25 2014 587.09 619.85 475.54 555.11
May 19-23 2014 595.77 630.64 480.02 552.96
June 16-20 2014 606.75 630.75 489.57 540.32
July 14-18 2014 590.68 618.24 482.27 535.23
Liquid
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Aug 12-16 2013 584.72 698.25 360.99 412.11
Sept 9-13 2013 544.71 668.87 334.17 374.29
Oct 7-11, 2013 522.83 654.00 323.41 368.60
Nov 4-8 2013 517.59 652.20 320.37 366.99
Dec 2-6 2013 515.33 645.61 317.55 360.57
Dec 30 2013-Jan 3 2014 507.14 620.28 316.43 361.84
Jan 27-31 2014 498.35 616.93 332.31 379.41
Feb 24-28 2014 509.47 620.96 341.37 387.11
Mar 24-28 2014 514.19 633.09 349.16 393.30
Apr 21-25 2014 530.37 691.60 355.12 401.59
May 19-23 2014 556.15 698.01 354.85 406.49
June 16-20 2014 580.54 711.20 363.14 414.84
July 14-18 2014 556.53 683.79 348.07 399.93

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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Russ Quinn