DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- As has been the case in recent months, fertilizer prices continue to slide lower slowly, according to retailers tracked by DTN for the third week of November 2015. Meanwhile, farmers are becoming more efficient at squeezing more bushels out of the fertilizer they apply, experts say.

All of eight major fertilizers slipped lower compared to a month earlier but none were down any significant amount. DAP averaged $545/ton, MAP $559/ton, potash $424/ton, urea $403/ton, 10-34-0 $579/ton, anhydrous $629/ton, UAN28 $287/ton and $332/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, urea averaged $0.44/lb.N, anhydrous $0.38/lb.N, UAN28 $0.51/lb.N and UAN32 $0.52/lb.N.

Last week we reported the challenges those in the fertilizer industry faced with changing regulatory issues. Retailers face major changes with the storage and handling of anhydrous while all in the industry have an obstacle to overcome with the Des Moines Water Works suing three rural counties upstream from Iowa's capital city.

Despite this lawsuit, there are signs farmers are becoming more efficient at growing crops with fewer inputs. In a presentation at the recent Fertilizer Outlook and Technology Conference in Jacksonville, Florida, Harry Vroomen, vice-president of economic service for The Fertilizer Institute, highlighted some of this data.

Fertilizer typically boosts crop yields 40% to 60%, according to research. Vroomen said U.S. corn production increased 114% from 1980 to 2014. But during that same time nutrient use only increased 4.5%.

"This would be a 105% increase in partial fertilizer efficiency," Vroomen said.

Vroomen also broke down the fertilizer use by pounds of nutrient per bushel of corn produced.

In 1980, producers used an average of 1.58 pounds of nitrogen per bushel of corn, 0.0727 pounds of phosphorus and 0.882 pounds of potash, for a total NPK application of 3.188 pounds per bushel. In 2014 this same bushel only required 1.556 pounds of total NPK with 0.890 pounds of nitrogen, 0.326 pounds of phosphorus and 0.3440 pounds of potash. This meant 44% less nitrogen, 55% less phosphorus and 61% less potash produced with NPK total down 51%.

This data does raise some interesting questions in terms of crop production, he said.

How much lower could fertilizer input numbers go and still maintain yields? Or is it more likely that these figures will level-off or possibility even rise in the near-to-mid future? Some research shows we may have reached a turning point on nutrient use trends for P and/or K, he said.

"How will the world, and the U.S. in particular, increase food production by 70% [because of rising world population] by 2050 and how might this impact future U.S. nutrient demand," he asked. "These questions will have to be answered in the coming years."

With retail fertilizer moving lower in recent months, only one fertilizer remains more expensive compared to a year earlier. 10-34-0 is 3% higher than last year.

The remaining seven nutrients are now lower compared to retail prices from a year ago. DAP averages 5% lower, MAP 6% less expensive while UAN32 is 9% lower and both anhydrous and UAN28 are 11% less expensive. Potash is 12% lower while urea is 18% less expensive versus a year ago.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Nov 17-21 2014	576	595	480	493
Dec 15-19 2014	565	592	483	461
Jan 12-16 2015	566	594	486	465
Feb 9-13 2015	569	597	488	473
Mar 9-13 2015	570	597	489	471
Apr 6-Apr 10 2015	570	598	491	461
May 4-8 2015	570	598	491	457
June 1-5 2015	570	598	491	461
June 29-July 3 2015	570	596	490	469
July 27-31 2015	569	594	487	469
Aug 24-28 2015	567	586	476	447
Sept 21-25 2015	562	575	454	428
Oct 19-23 2015	547	562	435	413
Nov 16-20 2015	545	559	424	403
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Nov 17-21 2014	560	709	322	366
Dec 15-19 2014	572	705	322	362
Jan 12-16 2015	582	710	325	364
Feb 9-13 2015	589	707	330	370
Mar 9-13 2015	626	706	331	371
Apr 6-Apr 10 2015	648	709	333	370
May 4-8 2015	653	711	331	371
June 1-5 2015	650	710	331	371
June 29-July 3 2015	642	705	330	369
July 27-31 2015	636	689	324	354
Aug 24-28 2015	609	667	309	350
Sept 21-25 2015	589	646	297	343
Oct 19-23 2015	582	637	291	334
Nov 16-20 2015	579	629	287	332

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(MZT/ CZ)