DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Fertilizer Prices Slip Again

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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National average urea prices have tumbled 18% in the past year, according to DTN's latest retailer survey.

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices are shifting modestly lower for the 2016 crop, according to dealers tracked by DTN for the first week of October 2015. But liability issues and proposed government safety regulations threaten the retail fertilizer business and prices, long-term.

As was the case in last week's price survey, only one fertilizer declined by an amount of any consequence. Potash prices slipped 5% compared to last month with an average price of $446/ton. This is now the lowest average potash price in the history of the DTN retail fertilizer price reporting, which began in November 2008.

Prices for the remaining seven major fertilizers edged lower compared to a month prior, but none were down an amount of any importance in the near term.

DAP averaged $548/ton, MAP $564/ton, urea $418/ton, 10-34-0 $584/ton, anhydrous $639/ton, UAN28 $294/ton and UAN32 $338/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.45/lb.N, anhydrous $0.39/lb.N, UAN28 $0.53/lb.N and UAN32 $0.53/lb.N.

With retail fertilizer moving lower in recent weeks, only one fertilizer is now higher compared to a year earlier. 10-34-0 remains 5% higher compared to last year at this time.

The remaining seven nutrients are now lower compared to retail prices from a year ago. Both DAP and MAP have fallen 6%, potash 7%, anhydrous 8%, UAN32 9%, UAN28 10% and urea 18% during this period.

AFTERSHOCKS FROM WEST, TEXAS

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Longer term, fertilizer retailers across the country could be facing stiffer OSHA rules and increased costs from liability exposure. Changes to safety regulations are set to take effect at the end of the calendar year, short of a legal challenge by the Agricultural Retailers Association (ARA), The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) and several fertilizer retailers. As DTN reported last week, North Dakota's ag commissioner estimates a third of the state's fertilizer retailers could fold because of the cost of compliance. (See DTN's report on OSHA regulations here http://goo.gl/… ).

Many in the fertilizer industry believe OSHA decided to strengthen safety rules for fertilizer retailers to comply with an Executive Order by President Barack Obama after the deadly West, Texas, fertilizer explosion that killed 15 and leveled part of the town.

These added regulations focus on anhydrous ammonia, not ammonium nitrate, which caused the explosion in West, and could cause some fertilizer retailers, especially smaller ones, to stop selling the nitrogen fertilizer. Retailers would be subject to added costs of improving facilities as well as possible higher insurance costs.

Separately, a settlement was reached Monday with the families of the some victims of the West, Texas, facility explosion, according to the Associated Press.

Jury selection for the trial had been scheduled to start on Monday but a county website told potential jurors they were excused because "a settlement has been reached." No other details of the settlement were reported by AP.

District Court Judge Jim Meyer divided a host of lawsuits into three groups. The trial Monday was for the first group representing relatives of three men killed in the blast.

They sued the local owners of the facility as well as companies which either manufactured or sold fertilizer to the local company. The owners of the West Fertilizer Co. had $1 million in liability coverage, but the damage from the explosion exceeded $200 million.

The blast on April 17, 2013, also injured hundreds, demolished a whole section of the town and left a crater 90 feet wide and ten feet deep. Most of the victims were first responders who arrived to fight the fire but some nearby residents also were killed.

Authorities from the Texas State Fire Marshals' Office and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) never determined how the fire started.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Oct 6-10 2014 581 600 478 509
Nov 3-7 2014 579 598 480 500
Dec 1-5 2014 573 592 481 485
Dec 29-Jan 2 2015 565 593 486 462
Jan 26-30 2015 568 597 487 472
Feb 23-27 2015 568 597 488 472
Mar 23-27 2015 570 598 490 467
Apr 20-24 2015 570 598 491 453
May 18-22 2015 570 597 492 459
June 15-19 2015 571 597 490 467
July 13-17 2015 569 593 488 470
Aug 10-14 2015 568 591 479 457
Sep 7-11 2015 563 580 467 433
Oct 5-9 2015 548 564 446 418
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Oct 6-10 2014 556 697 327 373
Nov 3-7 2014 559 705 324 369
Dec 1-5 2014 568 714 323 368
Dec 29-Jan 2 2015 576 707 322 353
Jan 26-30 2015 585 707 326 367
Feb 23-27 2015 598 706 330 370
Mar 23-27 2015 639 706 333 371
Apr 20-24 2015 650 711 329 371
May 18-22 2015 650 710 332 372
June 15-19 2015 642 706 330 369
July 13-17 2015 639 691 323 359
Aug 10-14 2015 631 677 315 356
Sep 7-11 2015 594 656 301 346
Oct 5-9 2015 584 639 294 338

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(MZT/CZ)

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Russ Quinn