DTN Midday Livestock Comments

End-of-Week Positioning Leaves Mixed Price Levels

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN photo by Russ Quinn)

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Activity Friday in livestock futures is pointing to end of the week positioning after the surge in prices seen across the cattle market during the week. Very little fundamental activity is being focused upon Friday, as traders prepare for the weekend. Even though markets will remain open Monday, the fact that Monday is Columbus day and a federal holiday, could keep trade extremely light early in the week. Corn prices are lower in light trade. December corn futures are 2 cents per bushel lower. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 17 points higher while Nasdaq is up 15 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though there is no additional market activity developing across the complex Friday, early market support has eroded at midday, pointing to triple-digit losses in nearby futures contracts. Most of the push lower Friday is based on end of the week position squaring as traders try to take advantage of the $9 per cwt rally in spot month futures. Deferred futures remain lower, but in a much narrower range as the focus across the market remains tuned into the recent market support. Cash cattle sales are still undeveloped through the morning, although active movement is expected in the next couple of hours. Bids are seen at $120 in the South and $190 and higher in the North. Asking prices are still kind of hard to pin down following the recent surge in futures trade over the last few days. Best ideas of where cattle are priced is at $130 in the South and likely $203 and higher in the North. Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.47 higher (select) and down $0.64 per cwt (choice) with active movement of 101 total loads reported (45 loads of choice cuts, 23 loads of select cuts, 9 loads of trimmings, 24 loads of ground beef).

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FEEDER CATTLE:

End of week market cleanup activity has feeder cattle futures mixed with a combination of follow-through buying and late week position taking seen at midday. The lack of direction through the complex is not surprising or alarming to the market following the aggressive market surge through the week. Trade is likely to wander in a narrowly mixed range through the rest of the trading session with the focus next week being placed on longer term beef market activity.

LEAN HOGS:

Light to moderate support is holding through lean hog futures Friday morning as trades are focusing very little on the direction of cash markets at the end of the week, and stepping in to cover short positions, which developed Thursday. The focus through the complex is expected to remain more stable through the weekend with traders looking for longer-term support through the rest of the livestock market in the next couple of weeks. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $0.88 per cwt to $69.82 per cwt with the range from $63.00 to $72.00 per cwt on 2,435 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $1.28 per cwt to $70.48 per cwt with the range from $67.00 to $72.00 per cwt on 330 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report reported 152 loads selling with prices down $0.48 per cwt. Lean hog index for 10/7 is at $74.75 up 0.46, with a projected two-day index of $74.84, up 0.09.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

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Rick Kment