DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 4 cents in the December contract and up 2 3/4 cents in the July. Soybeans closed up 6 3/4 cents in the January contract and up 6 cents in the July. Wheat closed up 7 3/4 cents in the March Chicago contract, up 7 1/2 cents in the March Kansas City, and up 6 1/2 cents in the March Minneapolis contract. The December U.S. dollar index is up .27 at 99.89. December gold is down $9.40 at $1,066.90 while December silver is down $.06 and December copper is down $.0430. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 16 at 17,808. January crude oil is down $.15 at $41.75. January heating oil is up .0083 while January RBOB gasoline is up $.0194 and January natural gas is up .036.

Corn:

March corn posted its highest close in over a week on Monday, helped by commercials taking the long side of corn for a second consecutive week. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial net longs in corn at 18,650 as of Nov. 17, down 26,393 from the previous week. Commercial net longs increased from 7,901 to 29,812. It is also a testament to corn's value at these lower prices that Monday managed to close higher in the face of bearish concerns from Argentina's change in leadership and another rise in the U.S. dollar. Export demand remains slow as Monday's inspections number for last week came in at a bearish 19.5 million bushels. Farmer reluctance to sell at these low prices is helping March corn stay steady after November's earlier attempt to trade lower. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.43 Friday, priced 20 cents below the December contract and will stay below the 200-day average on Monday evening. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is up .27.

Soybeans:

January soybeans closed higher Monday, posting an outside reversal after news of Argentina's election sent prices to new contract lows Monday morning. Argentina's new president, Mauricio Macri, is expected to make more of Argentina's soybeans available to the world, but his specific policies will probably not be known until at least Dec. 10 when he takes office and examines the books. USDA estimates that Argentina will have 536 million bushels of ending soybean stocks in the current season so there is bearish potential that at least some of those supplies will be moved in 2016. Investors remain lightly short in soybeans, but commercials remind us that these lower prices offer good value. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial net-shorts in soybeans at 27,086 as of Nov. 17, down 1,859 from the previous week. Commercial net-longs slipped from 40,501 to 36,900. USDA said that last week's inspections of soybeans for export totaled 68.1 million bushels, a neutral-to-bearish amount that was down from 105.3 million bushels a year ago. January soybeans remain under bearish pressure and under a cloud of uncertainty, at least until more is known about Argentina's new policies. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.13 Friday, priced 45 cents below the November contract and below the 200-day average.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat closed higher Monday after finding more commercial support in Friday's Commitment of Traders report. CFTC data showed noncommercial net shorts in Chicago wheat at 46,180 as of Nov. 17, up 13,097 from the previous week. Commercial net longs increased from 41,959 to 56,290, a good sign that domestic demand for wheat remains active in spite of slow exports. Monday morning, USDA said that last week's inspections of wheat for export totaled just 10.0 million bushels, another bearish showing. DTN's five-day forecast expects light to moderate showers from Texas through Illinois with heavier amounts around Oklahoma. Oregon will also benefit from light to moderate amounts as winter crops go dormant. March Chicago wheat continues to hold steady in its sideways range, thanks to active commercial support below $5.00. DTN's National SRW Wheat Index closed at $4.43 Friday, priced 46 cents below the December contract and will remain below the 200-day average on Monday evening. DTN's National HRW Wheat Index closed at $4.05 Friday, staying below its 200-day average since early July.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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