DTN Early Word Grains

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

December corn was 1 cent lower, November soybeans were 4 cents lower, and December Chicago wheat was 2 cents higher.

CME Globex Recap:

Grains were mostly lower early Thursday, with soybeans erasing Wednesday's quiet rally. Corn was fractionally lower following another low volume overnight trade. The wheat complex was mostly higher due in part to the 0.300 sell-off in the U.S. dollar index. DJIA futures were lower while outside commodities were mostly lower.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 122.10 points higher Wednesday at 16,912.29. The NASDAQ Composite was up 42.79 points at 4,791.15. DJIA futures were 76 points lower overnight. Asian markets were mixed with the Nikkei down 181.81 points at 18,141.17 while China's Shanghai Composite was up 90.58 points (3.0%). European markets were also mixed. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.305 at 95.192. Crude oil was $0.17 higher at $47.98 while Brent crude was $0.17 higher at $51.50. December gold was $4.80 lower at $1,143.90. Dalian soybean futures were sharply lower while Malaysian palm oil futures were lower for the third consecutive session.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	Dec corn's weekly chart continues to show an intermediate-term uptrend.	1)	The minor (short-term) trend for corn looks to be nearing a downturn.
2)	Weekly export sales could be bullish for soybeans again.	2)	November soybeans are expected to come under pressure from technical selling again Thursday.
3)	Chicago wheat has established a solid uptrend on weekly charts.	3)	The short-term trend for Dec Chicago wheat looks to be turning down.

See Grain Archives for more information on the fundamental situation in grains. See the DTN Ag Weather Brief for complete market weather comments.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN Technical signals are indicating Dec corn's minor (short-term) trend has turned down just ahead of USDA's October round of Crop Production and Supply and Demand reports. Initial support is pegged at $3.87, the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.61 1/4 through Wednesday's high of $3.99 3/4. The 50% retracement level is down at $3.80 1/2. Fundamentally the market is expected to see disappointing weekly export shipments again in Thursday's report (for the week ending Thursday, October 1). Also, weekend weather forecasts for much of the U.S. Midwest remain favorable for harvest.

SOYBEANS November soybeans once again failed to take out minor (short-term) technical resistance on its daily chart near $8.99, opening the door to increased pressure possibly taking the contract back to a test of support near $8.78. Fundamentally, the tendency of the market recently has been to see increased commercial selling as another harvest weekend approaches, a situation likely to play out again this week. Weekly export sales are expected to be bullish, with the question being shipments. The early pace has been slow, but only slightly behind the 3-year average. Despite possible support from the lower U.S. dollar index it would not be surprising to see the market on the defensive for much of Thursday's session.

WHEAT Wednesday's sell-off in December Chicago wheat established bearish technical signals indicating the minor (short-term) trend has turned down. How did the contract respond? By rallying during the overnight session of course. While the gain was small (just under 2 cents) and trade volume was light (roughly 4,500 contracts), it was able to fight off potential spillover selling from both corn and soybeans through early Thursday morning. Light buying interest was tied to the sell-off in the U.S. dollar index, but this could be short-lived as the day progresses. Weekly export sales and shipments are expected to be less than spectacular in Thursday's report (for the week ending Thursday, October 1).

DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.62	-$0.03	-$0.34	Dec	-$0.001
Soybeans:	$8.34	$0.03	-$0.57	Nov	$0.000
SRW Wheat:	$4.61	-$0.09	-$0.56	Dec	$0.005
HRW Wheat:	$4.52	-$0.07	-$0.56	Dec	$0.005
HRS Wheat:	$4.93	-$0.08	-$0.40	Dec	$0.004

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

(CZ)

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