Ag Weather Forum

Rainfall Boosts Soil Moisture in Western Canada

Doug Webster
By  Doug Webster , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
The departure from normal (in percent) across the Prairies during the seven-day period from July 8 to July 14 shows variable rainfall amounts in each province. (Graphic courtesy of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)

The rains have started to fall for parts of the Prairies during the past week, but not all locations have seen a beneficial rain total. This is typical for summer showers. A wide variety of reports are coming in regarding crop conditions and how dry it is across Western Canada.

While extremely dry conditions cover some areas causing crop stress and loss, other areas have seen plentiful rains during the recent week with even a few spots reported too much rain and flooding. Based on the most recent seven-day rainfall percentage of normal we can see that some parts of south-central Alberta and a larger portion of west-central Saskatchewan have seen greater than 200% of normal rainfall. Such is the case across parts of eastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba as well.

These rains are very welcome and hopefully have come in time to help stressed crops to recover. Also evident on the weekly rainfall chart is that some very dry areas remain for parts of central and far southern Alberta. The good news is that during the next 48 hours some of these dry areas should also get in on some decent rains. There is even some chance that heavy rains could fall for some of central and southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan between now and early Saturday as low pressure slides slowly eastward across the southern Prairies.

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The return of the rain and cooler weather for many areas should certainly boost soil moisture levels and begin the recovery process for many crops. Drought stress has not been as big of a problem for Manitoba this summer, but even these areas will see some welcome rain during the next few days.

The return of the rain is due to a change in the jet stream flow pattern. We now have a flow coming in from the north Pacific in a fashion to allow weather systems to cross through the Prairies and produce the needed rain.

The overall rainfall pattern during the coming few weeks looks better than what we saw earlier in the summer. While rains are not expected to be with us all of the time, we do see a more normal pattern of rain potential every few days for most areas. Again, not everyone will see rain with each event, but over time most areas should see enough rain to benefit crop development.

Most of the long-range computer models indicate that as we move from late July to early August during the crop maturing stage, we should see near- and maybe above-normal rains. Temperatures are expected to average near or a bit cooler than normal which could become an issue if it becomes too cool.

Crop conditions and soil moisture levels should show improvement across an increasingly greater area during the coming week as a result of recent and expected rainfall. Areas reporting very dry conditions should be on the decline.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

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Freeport IL
7/16/2015 | 10:31 PM CDT
The level of yield damage to spring wheat from heat and dryness prior to this rain event might be the driver for North American wheat prices. Freeport, IL