Ag Weather Forum

Hope For Crops In Extended Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
Connect with Bryce:
Total rainfall in the Midwest the week of July 7-10 has a drier trend, which would be welcome for crops. (NOAA Graphic)

Warranted or not, there has been trade talk this week about the heavy rains and flooding in the southern and eastern Corn Belt --associated acreage and crop condition effect--and subsequent references to the last time rain compromised crop conditions so late in the season, 1993.

In looking at the two seasons, it's very apparent that the brunt of the 1993 flood year's crop impact was borne byIowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Back then, for the week ending June 27, 1993, Iowa's good to excellent corn rating total amounted to just 34 percent. Minnesota's corn rating that week was even lower, at only 17 percent good to excellent. Minnesota also had 24 percent of its corn rated poor to very poor. In 2015, Iowa's corn rating for the week ending June 21 was 83 percent good to excellent, with Minnesota at 80 percent good to excellent. Soybean conditiions displayed a similar contrast.

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

This year, the wet-weather issues going into midsummer are largely focused over the southern and easternMidwest--specifically southeastern Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. We've seen heavy rain and flooding in other locales as well, notably in Nebraska and Kansas--but the pummeling of the gut area of the Midwest is the trade-sensitive weather feature.

Now comes the big question, which is--"Will this wet pattern hang on through July?" Well--the U.S. GFS forecast model is leaning toward a drier trend following Wednesday, July 1. That's not to say we don't see rain in the soggy southern half of the Midwest, but these huge, monsoon-like events do not appear on the charts for the six to 14-day period ending Friday, July 10. That would certainly be a benefit to the wet southern half of the Midwest.

As for yield potential--DTN contributing analyst Joel Karlin will post a blog next week on what happens with corn yields in years when the month of June is wet. And he found that since 1970, there have been 20 months of June that have had heavy rains, and only 7 of those seasons had corn yield below trend line. Even the five wettest-June years (with June rainfall of more than 7.62 inches) saw average yields that met trend line. So, for production purposes, it's not time to write the crop off yet.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(ES)

P[] D[728x170] M[320x75] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .

Bryce Anderson
7/1/2015 | 5:28 AM CDT
Thanks for comments. The first article in the DTN Midsummer Weather Outlook series will be posted Wednesday July 1st.
Raymond Simpkins
6/29/2015 | 10:19 AM CDT
Crops look like crap along 57 and 55 in Ill. Knee high yellow corn until you get to Ark. Lots of unplanted acres. I will be waiting to price crops.
EDWIN BOLTON
6/29/2015 | 6:36 AM CDT
Had a great start in May with little rain and wishing for a drop of water. Now we need the tap turned off 8 inches in one week is starting to effect crops. Some fields haven't even been planted in southwestern Ontario
Bryce Anderson
6/29/2015 | 5:37 AM CDT
Seven-day forecast charts Monday June 29 suggest 2-3+ inch totals again in the Ohio Valley-Missouri Bootheel-Tennessee Valley, but lesser amounts elsewhere, tops of 1.5 inches in Iowa/Minnesota/northern and central Illinois.
Unknown
6/28/2015 | 10:09 PM CDT
Thank you for this analysis. This is type of info we need to make marketing plans. We have a nice rally.
ELDON HAISCH
6/28/2015 | 9:03 PM CDT
Global wetting
TOM DRAPER
6/28/2015 | 8:38 PM CDT
In other words, one out of three wet Junes resulted in lower than trend yields. Sounds more significant in those terms.
MICAH SAMSON
6/28/2015 | 7:04 AM CDT
Still believing in rain makes grain
Unknown
6/28/2015 | 12:58 AM CDT
I printed this off so I don't forget. You guys need to get out of the office.
DOUG FLAGEOLE
6/27/2015 | 8:41 PM CDT
dflageole@hotmail.com you need to take a ride in your car boy