Ag Weather Forum

Rainfall for Some, Little for Others Across W. Canada

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
The departure from normal (in millimeters) across the Canadian Prairies from May 17 to June 15 shows that the majority of the region saw less than 60% of the normal rainfall during those 30 days with a large chunk of that region seeing under 40%. (Graphic courtesy of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)

Dry soil conditions expanded across Western Canada during the first half of June, with values as much as 44% short now reported across Alberta and Saskatchewan. While dryness is expanding on average, there are some areas that had some beneficial rains during the recent week.

The dry weather continues to hamper crop development in many areas, but we continue to find soil conditions too wet for parts of far southern Manitoba. However, one does not have to travel very far northwestward in Manitoba to find the same dryness that exists across the remainder of the Prairies.

The accompanying chart shows that the majority of the Prairies have seen less than 60% of the normal rainfall during the past 30 days with a large chunk of that region seeing under 40%. The lack of rainfall is most of the reason for the slow start to crop development after such an early end to the seeding season.

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Rainfall during the summer tends to occur in more of a hit-or-miss nature as showers and thundershowers power up in a scattered nature most of the time, rather than the broad and more widespread nature of winter-like overrunning precipitation.

This explains the spotty rainfall nature with some areas with just a little less-than-normal rainfall across the Prairies during the past month, while others have seen nearly nothing. Rains have continued to be more generous across far southern Manitoba. During the past week, we have seen some beneficial rains fall across central Saskatchewan as well.

The forecast is becoming critical for some areas as the main crop development period is getting underway. Rainfall will be essential quite soon for the areas that have lost out on the spotty showers recently. The weather pattern does show some opportunity for showers across many areas of the Prairies during the weekend, especially for some of the driest southern areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan. We must keep in mind that summer showers can be local in nature with not all locations getting wet.

The upper-air weather pattern portrayed to cover Western Canada for the remainder of June into early July is not one that would bring widespread showers for most areas, but there will continue to be a few chances of showers from time-to-time. During next week, some increase in the strength of the ridge across Western Canada may shut down most shower threats, but the following week may see a return of a pattern more like we have seen during the past week when some areas saw some beneficial showers.

An early take on July shows a continuation of our spring pattern with rains probably more on the spotty side leaving some fields dry and others with enough to get by. Temperatures may respond to the dry soil conditions and warm up to near- to above-normal levels for many areas later this month and into July.

We can hope that this weekend's shower potential reaps enough water to increase soil moisture and get crops developing. If the showers turn out to be isolated then we are likely to see further expansion of sub-par soil moisture and worsening growing conditions across the Prairies next week.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

P[] D[728x170] M[320x75] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .