Ag Weather Forum

El Nino Update

Mike Palmerino
By  Mike Palmerino , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

Our latest calculation of the sea surface temperature departure in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean for the first half of June stands at 2.4 degrees Celsius above normal. This is up from the 1.7 degree C above normal departure observed during the month of May. This is the warmest departure observed in our data base since the major El Nino of 1998-1999 when a positive departure as high as 4.8 degrees was observed.

The reason for the increasing departure at this time of the year is because the normal sea surface temperatures are decreasing by nearly a degree per month while the actual sea surface temperatures are remaining stable, hence the greater departure.

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Another feature we are watching closely is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This is the atmospheric circulation in the Pacific that tends to support the ENSO condition. The more negative the SOI the greater support for El Nino. The 30 day running mean of the SOI reached -17.10 on May 26 which is solidly in the El Nino category. As of today, June 16 it has turned positive at +1.53. This would suggest the atmosphere has headed back into ENSO-neutral conditions. It will be interesting to see how the different direction between the SST and the SOI gets resolved.

The greatest impact from this El Nino in the U.S. this spring has been the wet weather in Texas and the southern Plains and the enhanced rainfall in the Midwest.

Mike

(CZ)

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