Ag Weather Forum

NOAA El Nino Commentary

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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(Graphic courtesy of NOAA)

Following is the full commentary on current Pacific Ocean conditions by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued this past week. -- Bryce

ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory

Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Nino will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.

During May, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. All of the Nino indices were in excess of +1.0 degree Celsius, with the largest anomalies in the eastern Pacific, indicated by recent weekly values of +1.4 deg C. After a slight decline in April, positive subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened during May in association with the progress of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. In addition, anomalous low-level westerly winds remained over most of the equatorial Pacific, and were accompanied by anomalous upper-level easterly winds. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Nino.

Nearly all models predict El Nino to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015. For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Nino-3.4 index +1.5 deg C or greater), relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Nino remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Nino will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Nino are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday June 18th). El Nino will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins.

BA note -- In addition to the below normal hurricane season, El Nino is a big factor in grain market sentiment that row crop production this year in the U.S. will be at least trendline if not above.

(ES)

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Bryce Anderson
6/16/2015 | 4:45 AM CDT
El Nino in the fall season is an above-normal precip maker--so we could have a wetter harvest season similar to last year.
TOM PYFFEROEN
6/15/2015 | 6:43 AM CDT
We who farm in S E Mn are extremely wet, appears this trend will continue through the month of June according to DTN weather models. Do you see this as an El nino affect currently ? You mention El nino will affect us into the fall meaning what wetter than normal or drier . Corn is starting to yellow beans are doing the same. Thanks Tom