Ag Weather Forum

June to Be Key Month for El Nino

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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Australia's El Nino forecast calls for this event to peak in July, and not reach "strong" levels. (BOM graphic by Nick Scalise)

OMAHA (DTN) -- El Nino is in place in the equatorial Pacific, but the intensity and duration of this event have different timelines and scales, depending on the weather agency you check.

El Nino is an ocean and atmospheric feature in the Pacific equatorial region, characterized by above-normal ocean temperatures and a prevailing west-to-east jet stream in the subtropical latitudes. Sea surface temperatures have been consistently above normal for several months; but, during May, the atmospheric portion of El Nino, as indicated by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), moved into the El Nino category too. This development is accorded some responsibility for the record, flooding rain that has swamped much of the Southern Plains and portions of the Midwest in recent weeks.

The questions now are: How long will El Nino continue, and how intense will this event be? DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino believes that what happens during June will determine the evolution of the 2015 El Nino.

"We have seen the SOI retreat from its very strong El Nino levels the last week or so, and this certainly bears watching," he said.

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World weather forecast agencies also have differing views on the final strength and staying power of the 2015 El Nino. The U.S. forecast model features ocean temperatures continuing to warm during June into July, reaching levels not seen since an El Nino back in 2004.

The Australia forecast model, on the other hand, calls for ocean temperatures to reach their warmest levels by July, and then begin a slow but consistent leveling-off. The Australia model keeps El Nino in the "weak" to "moderate" category; the U.S. model has this year's El Nino making its way into the "moderate" to "strong" category.

In any event, both the U.S. and Australia models, with El Nino in place, are generally favorable for the summer's weather pattern, which features seasonal temperatures in most crop areas except for the Southern Plains, where the forecast trend is for below-normal values. Precipitation is expected to be above normal in the central and southern Plains, Deep South, Southeast and in the Rocky Mountains. Other major crop areas are predicted to have near-normal rainfall amounts.

The key feature of this summer forecast is the lack of widespread stress features over the U.S. corn and soybean belts.

On a world scale, one feature with El Nino is the threat of reduced production in palm oil areas of Southeast Asia. But DTN Analyst Todd Hultman has yet to see any market reaction to that possibility.

"I have not seen anything yet that says (palm oil) production is being hurt, and stocks are described as 'high,'" Hultman said.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson
6/8/2015 | 5:28 AM CDT
The Australia SOI calculations for Monday June 8 2015 do indicate some easing in El Nino intensity. The 30-day average is -8.87; 90-day -8.34; with the daily calculation at +8.93.