Ag Weather Forum

Rainfall patterns across Alberta and Saskatchewan have been stingy at best so far during this growing season and the dry conditions are now starting to increasingly affect emerging and developing crops. Increasing coverage of dry soil moisture conditions are slowing crop development after seeding operations got off to the best start in a decade or more in many areas.

Seeding is pretty much complete across all three Prairie provinces. The issue of getting the seeds into the ground has shifted to the issue of germination and development. Manitoba remains in the best shape moisture-wise with southeast areas still too wet, while dry weather is starting to affect western parts of the province.

Since April 1, some areas of southeastern Alberta reached record levels with respect to the lack of precipitation, while a large portion of southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan are now classified in the extremely low category for spring precipitation. While most areas are too dry, we continue to see a wide range of rainfall distribution with the Peace River area still too wet, as well as a couple of small pockets through west-central Saskatchewan.

Cold weather and frost from two late-season cold snaps late last month did do some damage to oilseeds across all three provinces and forced farmers to do some reseeding. Upcoming weather patterns during the next few weeks do not imply any more temperatures low enough to do further damage.

Rainfall potential is more problematic during the next 10 days. A jet stream flowing from west to east across southwest Canada is expected to continue into the middle of June, which is not out of the ordinary for this time of year. What seems to be lacking is enough moisture with any fronts crossing the area to produce more than a few widely-scattered showers.

Another problem that could arise early next week is an increase in temperature to high levels for some portions of southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan as hot weather across the U.S. Pacific Northwest bubbles northward for a time. Added hot weather without rain across areas that are already too dry is not a good recipe for emerging and developing crops.

The upcoming weather pattern appears to be one that might produce a little more rain for Manitoba, the area that needs it the least. There are some indications that an increase in wet weather potential for all of the Prairies might come about after we go through next week. Some of the model forecasts show a southward shift in the position of the jet stream which would track low pressure areas along the U.S./Canadian border in a fashion to better produce some rain.

The increasing coverage of short soil moisture conditions during the next week is sure to further affect crop development, but June and July are the two wettest months of the year across the Prairies by average so we can hope that sooner, not later, some beneficial rains come to the dry areas of Western Canada.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

(ES)

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