Ag Weather Forum

Crop Report And Weather Comments

Mike Palmerino
By  Mike Palmerino , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

The latest crop progress reports issued on Monday afternoon had few surprises. Most of the Midwest is wet. This has slowed the remaining soybean planting and may force some replanting of corn and soybeans in areas of excessive rainfall. Planted corn and soybeans could use more sunshine and less rain to help with crop development. Overall conditions for corn and soybeans remain good.

The southern Plains and Texas are excessively wet. We are now beyond the point where this is of benefit to the winter wheat crop. We are now beginning to see reports of disease issues for the maturing crop. Producers are also having problems planting soybeans with progress falling further behind normal. The good news is that a change in the weather pattern will allow for high pressure to build over Texas and the southern Plains during the next 7-10 days. This will lead to warmer and drier weather which is exactly what producers need for maturing winter wheat and for planting soybeans.

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Soil moisture conditions continue to improve across the northern Plains after a dry start to spring allowed for rapid planting of spring wheat, corn and soybeans. With the improved soil moisture conditions and rapid planting progress, crop conditions are among the best of the major growing areas of the central U.S.

The Delta states are also experiencing favorable conditions with a majority of crops now in the ground. The Southeast states are experiencing some dryness, especially Georgia. However, with the change in the pattern, we would expect to see improving rainfall for the Southeast states as the ridge is replaced by a trough.

Mother Nature has decided that with a change in the month it is time to change the weather pattern. A dramatic shift in the position of the ridges and troughs in the U.S. is now in store for the first half of June. This is a pattern that we are more familiar with over the past 6-12 months. It features ridging (high pressure) over the interior western U.S. and a trough (low pressure) over the eastern U.S. This will be a hotter and drier weather pattern for the southwest U.S.--including Texas and the southern Plains. This will be welcome by producers if it only lasts through the first half of the month. The northern Plains and Midwest will continue to see favorable growing conditions with no persistent heat and generally adequate rainfall.

On another note: Our latest calculation of the sea surface temperature departure in the eastern equatorial Pacific stands at +1.7 degrees Celsius for the month of May. This is up from +1.3 in April, but is basically unchanged from the first half of May. At least this current warming trend in sea surface temperatures may be over. It will be interesting to see if we move another leg up in the coming months as some of the models are forecasting.

Mike

(ES)

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