Ag Weather Forum

Too Much Rain For Cotton

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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Record-setting Texas rain and moderate to heavy rain in the Delta are putting some cotton acres in jeopardy for 2015. (NOAA graphic by Nick Scalise)

We've discussed the adverse impact of heavy southern Plains rain this season on the condition of the winter wheat crop as well as disrupting row crop planting. But, that calamity from big rain totals and wet ground is farther-reaching than just grain crops. Cotton planting has been affected as well, and over a large area--from the Texas High Plains to the Mississippi Delta.

The following description is from an article authored by Nathan Gregory of the Mississippi State extension service:

"STARKVILLE, Miss. -- Mississippi cotton will need a warm, dry fall to counter the mostly wet spring and thrive in 2015.

Darrin Dodds, Mississippi State University Extension Service cotton specialist and research professor in the MSU Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, said heavy springtime rains caused planting delays for the third straight year. Generally, a week-long dry spell in mid-May has been sandwiched between extended periods of consistent rainfall. Dodds said producers made quick and substantial progress planting during that interim.

"It's amazing the cycles we've had," Dodds said. "The north Delta has been wet the whole time. There's been standing water as far down as Stoneville, but the weather changed from too wet to too dry from Clarksdale all the way to Yazoo City. There were people waiting on rain for a few days to either get up the seed they had planted or to even continue planting."

Producers are projected to plant about 350,000 acres statewide this year. That number is down about 18 percent from the 420,000 acres planted in 2014 but up 20 percent from the 295,000 planted in 2013. Last year, cotton farmers had a record yield at 1,232 pounds per harvested acre.

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported May 24 that the crop was 79 percent planted, which is just up from the five-year average of 76 percent for this time of year. USDA rated 57 percent of the crop as either good or excellent, but 38 percent was ranked fair and 5 percent was poor.

If heavy rains persist for the first week of June without relief, producers will likely consider a switch from cotton to soybeans. Those decisions typically depend on what happens the last week of May and first week of June.

"We need another week to 10 days of good weather, but I don't know if we're going to get that or not," Dodds said. "The replants to this point in time have been minimal. Producers have gotten the crop to a good stand in almost all cases. They have just been fighting the weather more than anything."

Extension agricultural economist Larry Falconer said harvest time prices are projected to hover around the 63- to 65-cent range -- close to where they finished in 2014.

"I hope we will be better than that," Falconer said. "The main reason we've had a drop in the cotton prices is that the worldwide availability of cotton is still large. It has decreased from last year, but it's still large, historically speaking."

Dodds said relatively cool but lingering summers have been instrumental in the crop's success in recent years.

"We need the summer heat to continue well into September like it has in the past two years," he said. "We also need a dry October and November so we can get the cotton out of the field."

This past week's Texas crop progress and condition report contained these details on rain and its effect on the cotton crop:

"Areas of the Edwards Plateau and South Central Texas received upwards of 10 inches. Unseasonably low temperatures and continued rainfall have delayed cotton and summer crop planting across the northern part of the state. Cotton planting at 29 percent was 21 points behind normal due to continued rainfall."

The rainfall forecast for the Texas Panhandle-high plains region does have lighter precipitation this coming week. Whether that's enough time to get cotton planted before the crop insurance preventive planting deadline of June 5 is questionable. The north Delta also has lighter rain ahead during the next week. It will be interesting to see what the outcome for acreage is--and, again--whether the timing of this rainfall easing is soon enough to allow fields to dry enough to even let equipment run.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(CZ)

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