Ag Weather Forum

Drier Weather Continues for Canadian Prairies

Doug Webster
By  Doug Webster , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
Dryness continues to take over more territory across the Canadian Prairies as we move through late spring. While conditions are turning drier, farmers are far ahead of the seeding progress dates that we normally see across this region. Last week's snow and cold conditions across Manitoba forced some replanting of canola.

Crop seeding progress continues to march along at rates not seen in a decade or more for most of the Prairies helped along by the warm, dry spring weather of the past several weeks. While most areas are finding early and great success with this year's seeding operations, there are still some areas reporting some problems.

An upper level jet stream flow pattern across Canada dominated by a western ridge and east-central trough during the past few weeks has brought an early spring and less-than-average precipitation for most areas. The weather has probably been about as good as it can be for farmers to seed and to allow for early germination, but for some there have been a few issues.

The upper air weather pattern is one that we saw repeatedly during the winter and for that reason a late-season cold snap with some snow blew through Manitoba early last week and damaged some of the seeded crop. Some replanting of canola has been reported for southern Manitoba as a result. Cool weather for a time last week also slowed germination and early growth of other crops across parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta, but on the whole the crop season is well ahead of schedule.

Alberta reported 77% of the crop in the ground, as of May 19. Saskatchewan seeded 64%, as of May 18, and 87% percent by May 25, according to today's crop report. Manitoba has seen 87% of the crop seeded despite the periods of cold, snow, and rain of last week, according to the province's report issued May 25. The weather will continue to be favorable for seeding to roll along at a fast pace during the next several days with any shower activity fairly limited.

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While most areas are reporting fine conditions for farmers this spring there are still wide ranging reports of conditions. A few spots have soils too wet still, with tractors getting stuck in mud, while other areas have soils too dry for seeds to germinate. Soil moisture levels have declined a bit more during the past week with the percentage of adequate soil moisture dropping several percent for Saskatchewan and Alberta.

The weather pattern is showing some signs of shift during the next week or two as the Western Canada ridge weakens and retrogrades toward Alaska. This could help bring the region into a better shower pattern over time which would be good as crops emerge and start to develop.

The accompanying chart shows precipitation departure across the Prairies since April 1. Only southeast Manitoba and a small portion of the Peace River Valley of Alberta have received excess moisture during this period. Elsewhere we find most of the region is down more than 20 millimeters (0.80 inch) during that period with some parts of Alberta and western Saskatchewan lacking precipitation by more than 40 mm (1.57 inch) during that time.

The developing weather pattern will begin to allow a couple of weak weather systems to move inland from the Pacific during the next week or so. Some light-to-moderate showers are anticipated with these low pressure areas later this weekend and into early next week. Whether we see enough to begin to make up for the rain shortfall of spring so far remains a question, but we do see what appears to be a more favorable weather pattern for some rain as we move into June.

Chilly weather may also be a bit threatening for some areas during the next couple of nights. One more shot of polar air moving southeastward from central Canada may bring frosty conditions to parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Since the crop season is so early this year, we have left the door open for a late-season cold snap that could injure some crops.

A few different weather-related problems are noted here and there across the Prairies as we approach June 1, but overall most areas should continue to enjoy the earliest and most productive start to a crop season in many years.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

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