Ag Weather Forum

El Nino Signals Rival 1997

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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Australia Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values show a solid trend toward negative readings -- a sign of El Nino strengthening. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

A farmer in Australia asked if I had a reference point for the intensifying El Nino of 2015. His question was: "Is this mirroring any other El Nino formations? Ie, is there any El Nino years similar?" I put this question to Dr. Dennis Todey, South Dakota state climatologist. I figured that such a question must have come up in the scientific discussion this week.

It turns out that I was correct. Dr. Todey said that there indeed are some other years when conditions in the Pacific acted like they are in 2015.

"I would not say (this year is) its own creature completely. We found maybe a half dozen that strengthened in the spring. That was where we compared to. 2004 was one year, 2002 another," Todey said in an e-mail exchange.

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"There were (a)few that developed now and stayed into next winter. That seems like a good possibility now. Someone noted that the last time all 4 Nino regions were greater than +1 (warmer than 1 degree Celsius above normal)was going into the big event in November 1997-98. That is where we are now, but at the odd time of year." (bolded phrase is mine--BA)

"There was some discussion mid-week...about what this means across the country.It is an odd formation with El Nino finally being realized in the spring. There were several attempts at determining composites from analog years.The years we saw did not provide nice analogs--purely based on (a) developing El Nino during spring.

The bit of wild-card in this is how does the very warm water in the eastern Pacific interact and change patterns."

I didn't ask this question specifically, but Dr. Todey addressed it anyway--the final corn yield potential with the El Nino event intensifying as it is now.

"There were some hints at what I found with usual El Nino years with cooler wetter late in the growing season in the Corn Belt," he said. "Barring any of this I am falling back on my El Nino prediction for the growing season. Generally non-extreme in the way of temperature, maybe a little cooler than average. Precipitation may not be very wet, but likely sufficient – even in the drier areas to do fairly well. I don’t think I would differ from my slightly above trend yield prediction..."

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(ES/SK/AG)

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Comments

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andrew mohlman
5/18/2015 | 7:17 AM CDT
well I am not kidding to bold of a prediction makes me question who you work for or favor. Seems it could get to wet its a fifty fifty chance either way tell it like it is not what buyers want to hear.No way does anyone know it all like is claimed by traders only hear and see what they want.Farmers only ones deal with reality.
Stan Schoen
5/15/2015 | 5:47 PM CDT
I'm kidding here but couldn't ya let the bull run a few yards before ya put this out!