Ag Weather Forum

Early Emerged Crops in Prairies May be Threatened by Cold

Doug Webster
By  Doug Webster , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
The departure from normal (in millimeters) across the Prairies during the past 30 days shows soil moisture conditions are mostly good. (Graphic courtesy of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)

The 2015 crop season has gotten off to the earliest start since 2006 for many areas with even some portions of Alberta seeing the best start in more than a decade. The early exit of snow and favorable weather conditions have allowed seeding to race forward during the past two weeks with Manitoba already reaching 55% completion as of May 11.

Saskatchewan and Alberta are also reporting crop seeding progress percentages far ahead of the five- and 10-year averages. Saskatchewan had 34% of the crop seeded as of May 11, up from the five-year average of 9% and 10-year average of 17%. Favorable weather and ground conditions have helped farmers to work with few delays from late April onward.

Soil moisture conditions are in good shape for most areas with ratings of good to excellent ranging from 68 to 74% of the landscape, while areas that are too wet range from 16 to 31%. Drier conditions continue to be noted across some of southern Manitoba where some rain is likely to fall during the next few days. Some of the dry reports across Saskatchewan and Alberta are confined to the topmost layer where wind and dry air have depleted moisture.

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While all seems good for most at this time, we do see some potential problems both in the short and longer term. In the short term, we are seeing a rekindling of a weather pattern that frequented North America from February into April. A Western Canada ridge and developing polar vortex across eastern Hudson Bay and northern Quebec during the next week will bring some colder weather back across the Prairies.

Below- and possibly well-below-normal temperatures may arrive during the weekend bringing a high threat of hard frost and freeze to many areas. This cold could damage any early emerged crops that are vulnerable to cold. Temperatures as low as 20 to 28 Fahrenheit (minus 7 to minus 2 Celsius) are being forecast by some of the model forecasts early Sunday across most of the Prairies. Monday morning will again be quite cold, but probably up a couple of degrees.

The overall weather pattern appears to be making a return to the late-winter pattern when cold air was pretty easy to come by and precipitation was mostly lacking. After a stretch of great weather to start the crop season early, we may be seeing a few bumps in the road before we get to summer.

In the longer term, we are still concerned that the weather pattern is one that produces less rainfall than we would like. Soil moisture conditions are mostly good now, but a dry pattern during the next few weeks could deplete topsoil moisture for many areas during the critical development phase.

The 30-day precipitation departure from normal shows that the majority of the Prairies have seen from 10 to 30 millimeters less precipitation than normal from April 11 through May 10. Only central Saskatchewan, northwestern Alberta and the southeast corner of Manitoba crop regions have seen excess precipitation.

This weekend's cold shot and the longer term lack of precipitation have potential to derail what initially looks like a great crop season.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

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