Ag Weather Forum

Favorable Weather for Prairie Seeding

Doug Webster
By  Doug Webster , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
There has been variability of precipitation versus normal during the past 30 days across the Prairies. (Graphic courtesy of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)

Weather has been on the side of the farmer so far this spring in Western Canada. There's been mild weather on average, an early exit of snow cover allowing soils to warm enough for seeding to start early, and some periods of rain and snow just prior to seeding to moisten up some of the drier fields.

There are also a few spots reporting conditions too wet, but that is the minority of situations.

Initial reports from the Canadian Prairies are good ones for farmers for the most part; seeding began earlier than normal and a weather scenario so far this spring helps the situation. A couple of wet weather systems late in April and early in May have dampened some of the areas that were on the dry side; this created favorable soil moisture conditions for the majority of the region.

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Saskatchewan is reporting 76% of the crop land with adequate soil moisture and only 4% short. Across Manitoba, conditions are drier but recent rains have helped some of the dry fields, while a few localized spots continue to report excess moisture. The majority of Manitoba's fields need a little more rain to help out with emergence and growth as we move forward into late spring.

The accompanying chart shows the variability of precipitation versus normal during the past 30 days across the Prairies. Less-than-average precipitation has occurred west and east with Saskatchewan seeing a little too much.

A late-season snowfall of up to 20 centimeters and more across the Peace River area of Alberta earlier this week should melt rather quickly as a milder, drier weather pattern takes hold for western areas of the Prairies. The rest of the Prairies should see rather chilly weather into early next week, which should not yet be a problem since emergence is pretty much non-existent.

Overall, we see a rather favorable weather forecast for seeding across Western Canada during the next one to two weeks with a good amount of sunny, dry weather expected. The upper air weather pattern is one that should feature a ridge through Western Canada keeping storms at bay across the central U.S. Chilly weather across the central and eastern Prairies in the short term should moderate to near to above normal by the middle of next week.

In the short term, this is a good scenario for seeding and fieldwork operations. If this weather pattern persists into the longer term, then we may have to deal with drying soil conditions during the late spring or early summer as crops emerge and develop. While the potential of drier weather is still speculative at this point, it is something to keep an eye on as we move forward.

For now, the early arrival of spring and rather favorable seeding conditions should allow for a much earlier start to the growing season across the Prairies than we have seen in a few years.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

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