Ag Weather Forum

Weather Forecast Favors Upcoming Seeding

Doug Webster
By  Doug Webster , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

As winter turned to spring and the snow cover across the Prairies melted away several weeks earlier than the past two seasons we had some concern that dry soil moisture conditions could develop during the spring, possibly hampering seeding. Recent beneficial showers and snow have mostly put to rest for now the low soil moisture potential for most areas.

The overall weather pattern is appearing to be one quite favorable for the soon to start field work and seeding season across western Canada. Unlike the snow and significant cold of the past two springs we are seeing a more gentle weather pattern this year with of late some increase in precipitation to help keep soil conditions favorably moist.

The weekend rain and snow brought some areas as much as 25 mm (1 inch) melted. With April nearly in the books we are finding that parts of southern Alberta have received as much as 115 percent of normal precipitation for the month while most other areas from Saskatchewan to Manitoba are seeing monthly precipitation in the 60 to 90 percent of normal range. Actual monthly totals range from 0.50 to 1.50 inch (13-38 mm) across most of Alberta and Saskatchewan with Manitoba totals mostly in the 0.25 to 0.75 inch (6-19 mm) area.

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With a few more splashes of showers and rain expected as we change the calendar from April to May along with a temperature pattern in keeping with the time of year we can be pretty optimistic for a good start to the seeding season during the next few weeks.

While it appears that on the whole a favorable weather pattern is evolving for the start of the new crop season there are still some spots with drier than normal conditions than we would like to see. Parts of Manitoba could still use some rain but there may also be some coming during the next week. There are also a few small areas that are too wet across northern Alberta but most areas are in a much more favorable situation for seeding than we saw during the past 2 years.

The May weather outlook continues to show a pretty favorable picture for western Canada. Temperatures are expected to average pretty close to normal, but as it typical some see-saw temperatures can be expected until the cold across northern Canada finally gives up.

Rainfall prospects for next month show seasonable amounts expected. The weather pattern that has taken hold during the past week or two is one featuring a west to east progression of weather systems. There has been considerable blocking across eastern Canada during the last half of April but its' effects have not reached the Prairies.

The progression of weather systems from west to east across the Prairies is a good one since it brings an opportunity for showers every few days keeping soils moist enough for germination and in between these systems sunshine should help warm soils. This is not a pattern that should produce excess cold, wetness, or heat.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

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Jerome Fitzgerald
4/30/2015 | 5:31 PM CDT
great halilujia best to start while god smiles on us