Ag Weather Forum

Differing Soil Moisture Conditions for Western Canada

Doug Webster
By  Doug Webster , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
(Graphic courtesy of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)

Some areas of the Prairies have seen drier-than-normal conditions during winter which have persisted into spring. Most notably, southern Manitoba has been dry and a few spots near the U.S. border recorded a record dry winter. Winter is being defined as from Nov. 1 through March 31.

Dryness was also noted across parts of eastern and southern Saskatchewan and in a spotty nature across southern Alberta. Not everyone was dry -- parts of central Saskatchewan and north-central Alberta were too wet during the winter season.

The winter precipitation pattern has undergone some changes with respect to precipitation as we have moved into March and April, but not for everyone. A chart from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada shows from mid-March through the first week of April that dryness continued for Manitoba, as well as for south-central Alberta. Changes have taken place across central Saskatchewan where drier conditions are welcome after the winter wetness. Wet weather remains a problem for north-central Alberta, but is probably welcome for southernmost Saskatchewan where the winter was drier.

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While the overall weather pattern has been mostly drier than normal for most of the Prairies during the past month or longer, this is not the case for everyone. Precipitation has been less than average for most areas during the two weeks following the 30-day precipitation departure chart, but a few spots of wetness have continued, mostly for north-central Alberta.

It will be early May before we get some good soil moisture data for the Prairies, but based on the winter and early spring precipitation data, we would think Manitoba will start out with drier-than-average conditions. However, many areas from Saskatchewan to Alberta may be in reasonably good shape. Again, there are a few spots even across the west that are either too wet or too dry but cover a fairly low percentage of the entire region.

The upcoming weather pattern appears to be reasonable with respect to temperatures and rainfall for the region as we move from late April to early May. There will be at least a couple of opportunities to see some light-to-moderate rain activity across the region into the middle of next week. Beyond that, into early May, there are signs that the main low pressure track may be across either the southern Prairies or the northern border area of the United States.

Temperatures have been fairly close to normal so far during April for most areas although there has been quite a bit of variability from day to day. The upcoming pattern is not expected to produce major extremes, but we will likely continue to see the typical spring variability.

Spring fieldwork should be able to take place in most areas with the aerial coverage of too wet not very large. We should not get bogged down in any long-term wet patterns to delay or stop farmers from getting to work in the fields during the next couple of weeks.

The most recent May outlook from the U.S. monthly model output indicates wetter and cooler weather may begin to take hold across the southern Prairies, while northern areas are milder and a little drier than normal. Compared to the last two springs, the early preview for early fieldwork and seeding is to be earlier and with mostly better conditions for most areas, but not all.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

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