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U.S. Corn Yields Projected Above Trend Line With El Nino Onset

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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Warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean indicate El Nino conditions, which could be in effect until November. (NOAA Graphic)

OMAHA (DTN) -- U.S. corn growers could see a bumper crop this year thanks to warm waters in the Pacific Ocean.

Pacific Ocean forecasts from almost every international weather agency, including the U.S. Climate Prediction Center and the Australia Bureau of Meteorology, call for a weak-to-moderate El Nino to be in effect either from now, or by June at the latest, through November. This timespan covers the entire Northern Hemisphere summer.

El Nino describes the state of affairs when equator-region Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures reach sustained levels of 1 degree or more Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, and are accompanied by a barometer feature called the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) posting a consistent value of -8.0 or lower.

El Nino typically develops during the November-December timeframe. But recent Pacific Ocean trends suggest El Nino-related atmospheric patterns are in effect.

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"The sea surface temperatures are warming on the equator; also, there are very warm temperatures below the surface," said South Dakota state climatologist Dennis Todey. "These features lead to an enhanced probability of El Nino continuing."

El Nino prospects are being closely watched because there is a strong likelihood of bountiful corn production during seasons when El Nino is in effect. A DTN review of summer seasons with El Nino in effect shows that, going back to 1950, corn yields exceeded trend line more than half the time, and included such record-yielding seasons as 1969, 1972, 1982 and 2004, when final corn yields were more than 10% above trend line.

"Those are big numbers," said DTN Contributing Analyst Joel Karlin. "If you succeed like that in baseball, you're in the Hall of Fame."

While Todey isn't predicting double-digit-percentage-above-trend-line yields, he is confident about how El Nino will treat corn production this year. "We tend to have better cropping years for corn and beans during summertime El Nino events. They tend to not be hot and tend to not be dry," he said. "I am leaning toward above trend-line yields."

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino has also seen indicators of El Nino conditions form. "(Pacific) sea surface temperatures that I track have warmed up to almost one-and-a-half degrees Celsius above normal from March through mid-April," he said. As to whether El Nino will be around the entire growing season, however, Palmerino is cautious but still optimistic about the general growing season. "We are seeing some of the same features this season that we did a year ago," he said.

As far as the grain market's reaction to a favorable yield prospect, DTN Analyst Todd Hultman looks for a generally bearish slant. "It is fair to say that another year of beneficial weather will be bearish for corn prices, because it will allow potential buyers to sit back with no worries about supply concerns," Hultman said.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at Bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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