Ag Weather Forum

A look back at March across the Prairies shows that most areas saw temperatures in the range of 3 to 5 Celsius (6 to 10 Fahrenheit) above normal, but it was a little closer to normal across Manitoba where there were more episodes of cold weather. Precipitation was generally 60 to 80% of normal with major precipitation events mostly lacking.

Snow cover has already receded with most areas reporting either bare ground or just a few patches of snow left. Only central Manitoba maintains a significant snow cover. According to the snow cover chart, the snow cover is already farther north than is would normally be for April 1.

The departure of the snow cover is nearly a month earlier than the past two seasons and could bring about some soil moisture concerns if we do not see an upswing in precipitation during the next few weeks. The warmth of the past few weeks and early exit of the snow cover helped start the drying process already, especially across Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Current short term outlooks do indicate a couple of potential storm systems that might bring some moderate amounts of snow and rain to the region. The first of these occurs today with northern parts of the Prairies seeing some snow and mixed precipitation that might add up to several inches of snow where it remains all snow.

Another system may track early next week into the U.S. Pacific Northwest and east, just south of the U.S./Canadian border and bring an opportunity for the southern Prairies to see some light-to-moderate rain and snow. Overall, the weather pattern might become a little more favorable for some precipitation across the Prairies during the first half of April, but will this improved precipitation potential continue through the month?

Some of the latest model products are not overly enthusiastic about keeping things moist all month, at least for all areas. Today's weekly forecasts for the last two weeks of April show drier weather returning to the western Prairies while eastern areas are forecast to see near- to above-normal precipitation. The weather during this time is forecast to start mild then turn cooler.

The same models' forecast for May indicates drier weather along with increasing temperatures versus normal returning. A good scenario for the region would be to see an upswing in moisture during April to allow soils to moisten up and set the stage for a good seeding season during May.

Mother Nature does not always deal us what we would like to see, so we'll continue to monitor the potential of dryness for this upcoming seeding and growing season. Hopefully some of the weather systems that are expected to pass through the region during the next few weeks will produce beneficial precipitation to set the stage for a good start to the new crop season.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

(ES)

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