Ag Weather Forum

NW Corn Belt Drought to Continue

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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Only the northwest Plains and the southeast Midwest have normal or greater soil moisture going into spring. (NOAA graphic)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Similarities in dry conditions over the northern Midwest to the drought year 2012 are significant enough to have forecasters in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Central Climate Region keeping a very close watch over temperature and precipitation patterns this spring.

"The seasonal drought forecast calls for drought to intensify over the north Corn Belt," said Wendy Ryan, Colorado assistant state climatologist, during a conference call this week. "We had very little snow over the winter in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the upper peninsula of Michigan."

As a result, the entire state of Minnesota, along with portions of North and South Dakota, is now in moderate drought, according to the latest rendition of the U.S. Drought Monitor. That's not as harsh as the mid-March situation three years ago, when in 2012 at the same time, the Upper Midwest had large sectors in the next-worst drought level, severe drought. Nonetheless, the scenario places a premium on springtime precipitation.

The situation is not quite as dire as three years ago, however. "We had some good rains in fall 2014 that helped with soil moisture supplies," said climatologist Brian Fuchs of the National Drought Mitigation Center. "Also, our temperatures have been mostly below normal during the winter; in 2012, we saw above-normal temperatures all through the winter, which led to earlier plant green-up and earlier use of available soil moisture."

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As to this spring, the NOAA scientists do not look for extensive dryness; however, they are counting on general climate trends for rain to develop. So far, that has not been the case from northern Missouri north; DTN 30-day rainfall estimates show generally one-half inch or less, with only a tenth of an inch in most of Nebraska and western Iowa.

"We'll have to follow this going forward. If we continue to go into April with dryness, then it wouldn't be any question that we'd see moderate drought develop," Fuchs said.

Should conditions turn into drought mode, irrigation water may not be able to pick up the slack. That's because of notable snow melt in Colorado during a very warm period so far in March. "The South Platte and Arkansas (river) basins are OK (on water), but the majority of the central U.S. is below average," Ryan said.

Colorado's Wendy Ryan also notes that El Nino -- the occasion of warmer than normal ocean water in the Pacific equator region -- developed at the end of winter and has a very uncertain outlook.

"This El Nino had abnormal development," Ryan said. "And, the forecast models do not agree on its evolution."

One benefit from the mostly dry trend is that spring flooding has a limited forecast. "We'll see some convective-based (thunderstorm-related) flooding in the lower Missouri Valley, which we generally do, and some melting-snow flood in Kentucky, southern Illinois and southwest Indiana," Ryan said.

DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom is not surprised by the forecast details. He sees this update as confirmation for at least a temporary bullish trend in grain prices.

"I think it is what helps spark the expected spring rally," Newsom said.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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