Ag Weather Forum

Earlier Start to Spring This Year on Canadian Prairies

Doug Webster
By  Doug Webster , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

Spring in 2013 and 2014 saw cold, snowy conditions and got off to a very late start both years. Spring fieldwork and the seeding season started much later than average, but for both years the summer weather made up for the slow start and crops ended up producing good, if not great, yields for many varieties.

An early take on where we may go for spring 2015 is for an earlier start for farmers to get out in the fields to work, as well as start seeding. Whether or not fieldwork and seeding gets going earlier than normal is debatable, but from current expectations of what kind of weather pattern we foresee going into April, we should certainly see an earlier spring as compared to the past two years.

Snow cover and snow depths are considerably less than we saw during the past two seasons. The southern third of Alberta, far southern Saskatchewan and areas near the U.S. border of Manitoba already have scarce amounts of snow if any at all. Snow depths further north across northern Alberta, central and northern Saskatchewan, and most of southern and central Manitoba show amounts to be about one half of what they were last year at this time. Snow depths of 10 to 45 centimeters (4 to 18 inches) are being reported by most reporting sites.

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We have seen mostly average or a just a little above-normal amounts of snow this winter and there also have been periods of milder weather which helped melt down some of the snow pack. During the past two years, persistent very cold weather prevented the start of the meltdown until well into April and May.

Current forecasts for the remainder of March into April tend to keep a similar weather pattern in place that we have seen during the past couple of weeks. While there may be a few periods of colder weather, it should not be extreme or long lasting. We should also see periods of much milder weather as Chinook winds shift into gear and send temperatures to above-normal levels for a few days at a time.

So far during March, most of the Prairies have seen temperatures average a few degrees above normal even with the chilly start many areas had to begin the month. Snowfall during February was above normal for most areas, but since March has started precipitation in general has been light and spotty.

There will be a return of some parts of the February weather pattern during the last 10 days of March as it appears now but without the ferocity. This should prevent Western Canada from seeing a return of persistent cold and snow like we saw during 2013 and 2014 as we moved into spring. This is not to say that period of snow and cold will not happen once in a while, just not all of the time.

One item we will need to watch will be how much precipitation we receive as we move through April and into the May seeding season. If precipitation amounts turn out to be low and the weather milder than normal, we could start to encounter soils that are a little too dry when seeding operations commence. There is plenty of time to go before seeds are planted and one or two decent snow or rain events four to six weeks from now could negate any dry soil potential, but it is something to watch for.

For now we can enjoy the off and on periods of spring warmth and watch the snow slowly melt away and hope that the cold, snowy springs of the past two years don't rekindle themselves anytime soon.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

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