Ag Weather Forum

Arctic Air to Bring Chilly Weather Back to W. Canada

Doug Webster
By  Doug Webster , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

The vacation for winter weather across the Prairies is about to come to a close as arctic air settles southward during the next few days and bring temperatures from the well-above-normal levels of recent days to below normal by this weekend. The reversal in temperature will be significant, but will bring only limited amounts of precipitation.

The reasons behind the turn to much colder weather are due to a weakening of the upper level ridge across Western Canada to allow for the polar jet stream to shift southwestward into west-central Canada from its recent position across central Canada. Though not a huge change for the large-scale weather pattern, it will be a huge change for residents of Western Canada with respect to temperature.

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The coldest weather of the winter is currently located across the Northwest Territories with readings as low as minus 54 Fahrenheit (minus 48 Celsius) reported early today. A piece of this air will find its way into the Prairies by this weekend with a second helping of bitter cold due early to middle of next week.

Sometimes when cold air returns to Western Canada we see some decent upslope snow develop against the Rockies. While we do see some snow as the cold weather returns, the amounts look very light. Snow cover has disappeared from some parts of southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan and the rest of the Prairies have quite a bit less than we would typically see for this time of year.

A dry weather pattern has been in place for much of the winter due to the persistent ridge across Western Canada blocking any push of Pacific storms across southwest Canada. This pattern does not appear to be changing as we move into February and while temperatures are likely to turn much loqwe, we do not see much threat for any large-scale snowstorms. Some upslope snow may develop along the front range of the Rockies from time-to-time, but nothing to write home about.

The overall weather pattern we have seen during the past month appears as though it will continue into February with cold air favoring central and eastern Canada more than the west. This implies that our cold weather may only be a temporary change and a turn back to milder weather may occur as we move a week or more into February. This is a tough call as some very cold air will linger through central Canada and just a slight shift to where the polar jet stream and polar vortex is located could keep the cold in place for at least the eastern Prairies.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

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