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Dryness Concern Grows in Southern Plains

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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Almost one-quarter of the state of Oklahoma is now in extreme to exceptional drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. A year ago, less than five percent of the state had those categories in place.

California is not the only state where a hit-and-miss version of El Nino this winter season has been a disappointment in terms of minimal rainfall. The southwestern Plains -- despite having some major-league snows a week ago -- have increased drought conditions, and the dry trend may force ranchers to pull cattle off wheat pasture earlier than they'd prefer. (Dare I say "sooner" rather than later)

Water Year precipitation -- dating back to a start date of October 1, 2014--has been below average. Precipitation totals tracked by my colleague Joel Burgio show the Oklahoma grand total precipitation from October 1 through January 26 at 2.73 inches -- 86 percent of the average 3.27 inches. There have been some very low monthly totals as well. In November, Ponca City and Gage only received four and sixteen percent of normal precipitation. And, so far in January, Ponca City, Enid and Gage are below 50 percent of normal precipitation. And as the graphic accompanying this blog entry shows, much of the western half of the state is now in either Extreme or Exceptional Drought.

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Oklahoma State University livestock economist Derrell Peel is getting concerned about how long cattle can remain on wheat pasture. Here is an excerpt from a weekly livestock comment from Monday, January 26:

"Parts of southern Oklahoma and specifically southeastern Oklahoma received rain in the past couple of weeks. Last week also brought rain and snow to parts of western Oklahoma including a band of wet snow along Interstate 40 in west-central Oklahoma that contributed up to an inch of precipitation across several counties. All in all, however, it has been relatively dry this winter in much of the state. As a result, severe drought conditions persist in areas of southwestern and northwestern Oklahoma, including parts of the Oklahoma Panhandle. These severe drought areas have expanded slightly through the winter, but perhaps more disturbing is that marginal drought conditions have redeveloped across much of the state...These redeveloping drought conditions are not so much an immediate threat but do represent a potentially huge threat as spring approaches."

Forecast maps for the end of this week off some moisture for the southern Plains. It's not a drought-breaking amount, though--less than one-half inch. And along those lines, much of Kansas has been dry in January as well, taking in only one-third the normal amount of precipitation so far this month.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson
1/27/2015 | 9:08 AM CST
Forecasts for late week show from .5-.75 inch precipitation for the southwest Plains including Dodge City, Enid, Guymon and Amarillo. My guess is that the precip would be quite welcome.