Ag Weather Forum

Global Temps Set New Record Warm Levels in 2014

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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(Graphic courtesy NOAA)

Following is a portion of the NOAA global climate report for 2014. The big feature for last year was that, for the world as a whole, the year 2014 was the warmest on record. The world temperature surpassed 1998--so much for the opinion that global warming has backed off in the past 16 years. Yes, it was cooler than average in North America--but many other locations around the world went far above their normals. And, the biggest warming trend is the Arctic. The trend there is in the category of "leaping" beyond the normals.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Global Highlights

The year 2014 was the warmest year across global land and ocean surfaces since records began in 1880. The annually-averaged temperature was 0.69 degree Celsius (1.24 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 20th century average of 13.9 deg C (57.0 deg F), easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.04 deg C (0.07 deg F). This also marks the 38th consecutive year (since 1977) that the yearly global temperature was above average. Including 2014, 9 of the 10 warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred in the 21st century. 1998 currently ranks as the fourth warmest year on record.

The 2014 global average ocean temperature was also record high, at 0.57 deg C (1.03 deg F) above the 20th century average of 16.1 deg C (60.9 deg F), breaking the previous records of 1998 and 2003 by 0.05 deg C (0.09 deg F). Notably, ENSO-neutral (neither El Nino nor La Nina) conditions were present during all of 2014.

The 2014 global average land surface temperature was 1.00 deg C (1.80 deg F) above the 20th century average of 8.5 deg C (47.3 deg F), the fourth highest annual value on record.

Precipitation measured at land-based stations around the globe was near average on balance for 2014, at 0.52 mm (approximately .50 inches) below the long-term average. However, as is typical, precipitation varied greatly from region to region. This is the third consecutive year with near-average global precipitation at land-based stations.

Global Temperatures

A record warm December sealed the deal to make 2014 the warmest year across the world's land and ocean surfaces since recordkeeping began in 1880. The average temperature for the year was 0.69 deg C (1.24 deg F) above the 20th century average of 13.9 deg C (57.0 deg F), beating the previous record warmth of 2010 and 2005 by 0.04 deg C (0.07 deg F).

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This marks the third time in the 21st century a new record high annual temperature has been set or tied and also marks the 38th consecutive year (since 1977) that the annual temperature has been above the long-term average. To date, including 2014, 9 of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred during the 21st century. 1998 currently ranks as the fourth warmest year on record.

This is the first time since 1990 the high temperature record was broken in the absence of El Nino conditions at any time during the year in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, as indicated by NOAA's CPC Oceanic Nino Index. This phenomenon generally tends to increase global temperatures around the globe, yet conditions remained neutral in this region during the entire year and the globe reached record warmth despite this.

Six months of 2014 (May, June, August, September, October, and December) were record warm, while April was second warmest, January, March, and July were fourth warmest for their respective months, and November was seventh warmest.

Overall, the global annual temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.06 deg C (0.11 deg F) per decade since 1880 and at an average rate of 0.16 deg C (0.28 deg F) per decade since 1970.

Much of the record warmth for the globe can be attributed to record warmth in the global oceans. The annually-averaged temperature for ocean surfaces around the world was 0.57 deg C (1.03 deg F) higher than the 20th century average, easily breaking the previous records of 1998 and 2003 by 0.05 deg C (0.09 deg F). The first four months (January--April) each ranked among their seven warmest for their respective months and the following seven consecutive months (May--November) were record warm. The year ended with December third warmest on record for the month.

Prior to 2014, the highest monthly anomaly on record for the global oceans was 0.59 deg C (1.06 deg F) above the 20th century average, occurring in June 1998, October 2003, and July 2009. This all-time monthly record was broken in June 2014 (+0.62 deg C / +1.12 deg F), then broken again in August (+0.65 deg C / +1.17 deg F), and then broken once more in September (+0.66 deg C / +1.19 deg F)—that makes three all-time new monthly high global ocean temperature records set in a single calendar year. In fact, every month between May and November 2014 either tied or surpassed the all-time record high anomaly prior to 2014. This length of sustained record and near-record warmth has not been documented since 1997/1998 (record or near-record warm at that time), when a strong El Nino event occurred.

In 2014, the warmth was due to large regions of record warm and much warmer-than-average temperatures in parts of every major ocean basin. Record warmth for the year was particularly notable in the northeastern Pacific Ocean in and around the Gulf of Alaska, much of the western equatorial Pacific, parts of the western North Atlantic and western South Atlantic, and much of the Norwegian and Barents Seas. Nearly the entire Indian Ocean was much warmer than average with a broad swath between Madagascar and Australia record warm. Part of the Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland and the Southern Ocean waters off the southern tip of South America were much cooler than average, with one localized area near Antarctica record cold.

Temperatures were warmer than average across land surfaces as well. The global land temperature for 2014 was 1.00 deg C (1.80 deg F) above the 20th century average, the fourth highest annually-averaged value on record.

Because land surfaces generally have low heat capacity relative to oceans, temperature anomalies can vary greatly between months. In 2014, the average monthly land temperature anomaly rose from +0.31 deg C (+0.56 deg F) in February to +1.32 deg C (+2.38 deg F) in March, a difference of 1.01 deg C (1.94 deg F). These anomalies also represent the lowest and highest monthly anomalies observed during 2014. The ocean has a much higher heat capacity than land and thus anomalies tend to vary less over monthly timescales. During the year, the global monthly ocean temperature anomaly ranged from +0.46 deg C (+0.83 deg F; January, February) to +0.66 deg C (+1.19 deg F; September), a difference of 0.20 deg C (0.36 deg F).

The 1901-2000 average combined land and ocean annual temperature is 13.9 deg C (56.9 deg F), the annually averaged land temperature for the same period is 8.5 deg C (47.3 deg F), and the long-term annually averaged sea surface temperature is 16.1 deg C (60.9 deg F).

Most areas of the world experienced above-average annual temperatures... Record warmth was observed over various regions of the world's land surfaces, including Far East Russia into western Alaska, the western United States, parts of interior South America, most of Europe stretching into northern Africa, and parts of both eastern and western coastal Australia. It was also much warmer than average across many other land areas all across the globe.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that Europe was expected to have its warmest year in at least the past 500 years, surpassing its previous record set in 2007 by 0.3 deg C (0.5 deg F). Much of the warmth can be attributed to the second warmest winter on record, followed by a record warm spring for the continent. According to the WMO report, 19 European countries were expected to observe their hottest year on record, including Austria, Belgium, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

Temperatures are rising at a faster pace in the northern latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere compared with other parts of the globe. According to NOAA's 2014 Arctic Report Card, on average the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. For the period October 2013--September 2014, the temperature for the Arctic was 1.0 deg C (1.8 deg F) higher than the 1981--2010 average. The Finnish Meteorological Institute reports that the average temperature for this country in northern Europe has risen by more than 2 deg C (3.6 deg F) since 1849, or 0.14 deg C (0.25 deg F) per decade, more than twice the global average. In the past four decades, the rise has accelerated, at 0.2 deg C (0.36 deg F) per decade.

In Asia, with national information available through November 2014 and records dating back to 1961, China observed eight months of above-average temperatures, including its second warmest January to begin 2014. With records dating back to 1884, Hong Kong was record warm during both June and July. The temperature was mixed throughout the year in South Korea. The year began with above-average temperatures across the country followed by its second warmest spring in the 42-year period of record. Summer was cooler than average while fall was warmer than average, and the year ended on a cool note with December 2.0 deg C (3.6 deg F) below the 1981--2010 average, with the average maximum temperature for the month the fifth lowest on record.

The African continent was also warmer than average overall during 2014. In mid-January a heat wave in South Africa brought record high daily temperatures. Tunisia was impacted by a heatwave in September, while Morocco saw October temperatures more than 3 deg C (5 deg F) above average.

In South America, temperatures were much warmer than average across most of the continent. Argentina observed its second warmest year on record, at 0.60 deg C (1.1 deg F) above the 1961--1990 average, surpassing 2013 to take this spot in the rankings. All three of the warmest years since national records began in 1961 have occurred in the past three years (2012 record warm and 2013 now third warmest on record).

Following its warmest year on record in 2013, 2014 was the third warmest in the 105-year period of record for Australia, with a mean temperature 0.91 deg C (1.64 deg F) higher than the 1961--1990 average, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. The Australia fall season (March--May) was the third warmest on record for the country as a whole and spring (September--November) was record warm; only February was cooler than average. The annual warmth was also widespread, with every state except the Northern Territory ranking among its four warmest years on record. The most recent 10-year average (2005--2014) marks the warmest 10-year period since records began in 1910.

In contrast to all other land areas around the world, much of North America had below-average temperatures for much of the year, particularly during early 2014 due to a series of cold Arctic outbreaks and a persistent dip in the jet stream that moved warm air northward into Alaska and northern Europe and cold air southward into North America and central Russia. According to Environment Canada, it was the coldest meteorological winter (December 2013--February 2014) for the country since 1996, but with cold settling in before this official start to winter and remaining after its official end, Canada observed its coldest November--March since national records began in 1948. Record snowfall in some regions also accompanied the cold. Saskatoon had snow on the ground for six straight months, the longest period with continuous snow cover since records began there in 1955. The United States had its 33rd coolest winter in the 120-year period of record, with many states east of the Rockies having their coldest winter since the 1970s. The ice cover over the Great Lakes was the second largest since records began in 1973. On the other side of the dip in the jet stream, however, California was record warm for winter and Alaska was eighth warmest, with its records dating back to 1918. For the year, Alaska and California were both record warm along with two other western states: Nevada and Arizona.

There are many other details in the report--with record or near-record precipitation in parts of Europe, for example, along with a very dry year in Australia. The full report with graphics is at this link:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/…

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Comments

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Jay Mcginnis
1/28/2015 | 8:37 AM CST
I heard from a right wing talk host show that scientists are blaming arctic melt from an unusual amount of volcanoes being closer to the surface then normal. Any validity to this one? I don't think the GOP politicians deny the planet is warming, they just don't want the fossil fuel industry to be blamed, after all who would fund their campaigns?
Bryce Anderson
1/20/2015 | 5:49 AM CST
The notion that the earth has not warmed since the mid-1990s was out there about 3 years ago. Since then, this opinion has been debunked by research done by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The increase in global temperatures has slowed, but the oceans have taken up heat at a faster rate since the turn of the century. Over 90 percent of the overall extra heat goes into the oceans, with only about 2 percent heating the Earth's atmosphere. The myth of the "pause" is based on ignoring 98 percent of global warming and focusing exclusively on the one bit that's slowed.
JEFF RIDDER
1/19/2015 | 6:37 PM CST
Then why have we been told that there has been a 19 year hiatus on warming. The earth hasn't warmed since 1996. We're told scientists who believe in global warming are struggling to explain this phenomena. Somebody is lying.
Curt Zingula
1/17/2015 | 1:03 PM CST
Good science eliminates outside factors. Tree growth is highly influenced by rainfall amounts and timing. Computer modeling is influenced by whatever data someone considers appropriate.
Bryce Anderson
1/17/2015 | 6:58 AM CST
Many different studies incorporating both physical information such as tree ring data and computer modeling have been used to reach the conclusion that Europe temperatures in 2014 were the warmest in at least the past 500 years. The 500-year benchmark reference would not have been published had there not been repeated findings to support that reference.
GWL 61
1/16/2015 | 5:06 PM CST
Good info on our ever changing weather. One question though, How does the WMO know what the temp was 500 yrs ago ?