Ag Weather Forum

Above-Normal Temperatures Bring Relief to Western Canada

Doug Webster
By  Doug Webster , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

The recent rebound in temperatures across Canada has been brought about by the relaxation and northward displacement of the polar vortex through northeastern Canada. Ridging along the North America's West Coast has weakened and allowed Pacific air to arrive that is a whole lot milder than the arctic air it replaced.

The cold air making mechanism has been mostly put on hold for the time being across western and central Canada leaving the region with a milder-than-normal temperature regime. We will see a couple of brief incursions of arctic air across Manitoba into the early weekend, but for the western Prairies temperatures will average above to well above normal.

Despite the big warm-up, no major changes to the overall dry pattern are seen with the new weather pattern. December was quite dry versus normal across Western Canada and so far January has not been much of a snow producer for most areas either. Both the cold pattern of early January and our new mild pattern are dry ones.

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The early month pattern featured persistent cold air moving southward from northwestern Canada which brings little moisture with it. The hope with the cold weather pattern is that some moisture can be squeezed out when the winds upslope against the mountains. We did see a little of this, but not in any widespread fashion.

The new mid-month mild pattern is featuring westerly winds which downslope off the Rockies and bring generally dry weather to the region. Moisture from the Pacific gets rung out against the west slopes of the Rockies and never makes it to the Prairies.

Many of the computer model outputs we look at indicate that the mild, dry pattern we're now seeing may not have lasting power. By the time we reach the last week of January there are indications that a renewed ridge near the North America's West Coast will block the modifying influence of the Pacific across Western Canada and the polar vortex may reform across the Hudson Bay region.

This possible new weather pattern will bring back the cold air making mechanism we saw early in the month and may very well send temperatures plunging again after about another week of moderate temperatures. It is still unclear if the return to cold weather will allow for some upslope snow conditions, but one of the models does show above-normal precipitation for late January and early February.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

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