Ag Weather Forum

Mild Midsummer Pattern Possible for Midwest Corn Crop

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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Analog forecast charts show mild midsummer weather patterns in the Midwest. Hotter and drier conditions are confined to the Southern Plains. (NOAA graphic by Nick Scalise)

OMAHA (DTN) -- With the primary driver of the weather forecast for the first part of the 2015 year being a weak El Nino pattern in the Pacific Ocean, attention during January will to some extent, focus on corresponding crop performance.

El Nino, where the equatorial Pacific Ocean off the South American coast has consistently above-normal temperatures, is expected to decline to a neutral phase by late spring or early summer. If that scenario pans out, there may be favorable growing conditions in many primary crop areas.

The previously-described scenario summarizes how weather has been in comparable years to what conditions are expected for midwinter in 2014-15. Those comparable years are called "analog years" and, at this time, those years offer at least a benchmark to get an idea of crop production potential.

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It's a promising one if you like big crops. For example, the July analog-year comparison for a weak El Nino easing into a neutral phase by summer features mostly normal to below-normal temperatures in the Midwest and below normal in the Northern Plains -- very similar to this past summer. The precipitation outlook is also crop-friendly in the Midwest, expecting mostly above-normal amounts, with that same type of trend forecast for the Northern Plains.

Chances for precipitation in the Midwest and Northern Plains ring true to DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino's view of a variable winter weather pattern, which would offer better prospects for moisture in the Northern Plains and the western Midwest as spring approaches. Much of this region, from the Great Lakes to the Rockies, is classified as having "abnormally dry" conditions according to the Dec. 23, 2014, Drought Monitor.

"There is some dryness in the northwestern Corn Belt, but as we get closer to spring, we're likely to see a thermal boundary set up in those states," Palmerino said. "If you maintain some thermal contrast going forward, you could have a third straight year of spring storms in that area."

The pattern is less favorable in the Southern Plains, Delta and Southeast. These areas have above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation -- in other words, a very warm and mostly dry pattern during the heart of the growing season. That combination is potentially stressful to crops.

However, it's also the sector of the country where precipitation is likely to focus this winter with some El Nino influence, and thus has potential to receive some important soil moisture ahead of planting.

"The majority of moisture during the rest of the winter is likely to emphasize the southern and eastern Midwest, on south," Palmerino said.

That prospect, along with the traditional Corn Belt sporting the summer analog combination that it does, makes it hard to come up with a problematic scene for crops this coming summer.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

(ES)

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