Ag Weather Forum

Ice Box Takes Hold Across Canada

Doug Webster
By  Doug Webster , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

Arctic air has taken hold across nearly all of Canada during the past several days sending temperatures down to below normal levels and the downward trend is not done yet. As arctic high pressure continues to build across the western half of Canada during the next several days to a week temperatures will continue to spiral downward as skies remain clear and any warmth near the Earth's surface radiates into space.

Record cold is not expected but well below normal temperatures certainly are for much of western, central, and east-central Canada during the next week or so.

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The about face of the weather pattern has all come about due to a combination of a developing upper level ridge through the eastern Pacific northward into Alaska an evolving polar vortex through northeastern Canada. This pattern blocks the eastward progression of modifying Pacific warmth across Canada and allows for the development of arctic air over the snow covered landscape.

This pattern is somewhat like what we experienced last winter except that blocking is not nearly as big of a player thus far. This time around the large-scale ridge/trough pattern is the main player making the ability to keep this pattern in place for a lengthy period of time less likely.

The eastern Pacific ridge may weaken or break down for a time late next week and toward the middle of January allowing for a moderation in the cold. That does not mean we are done with cold because there are signs that a renewed eastern Pacific ridge may return near or just after the middle of January. The key to how much cold may come back will be on where or how strong the polar vortex is.

The prospects for snow increase as we move into the weekend and cold air moving up against the Rockies increases. This upslope wind flow pattern may produce light to moderate snows across Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan along with bitter cold temperatures. Eastern portions of the Prairies are much less prone to seeing snow with this pattern but a couple of periods of light snow or flurries can not be ruled out.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

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