Ag Weather Forum

A Look at 2015 Growing Season

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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Analog forecast charts show mild midsummer weather patterns in the Midwest. Hotter and drier conditions are confined to the Southern Plains. (NOAA graphic by Nick Scalise)

There is not much of a lag from one crop season to the next. Judging from the conversations I've been in with farmers recently, I get the idea that for U.S. weather, there is about a four-week lag time -- basically, the month of November -- until the questions switch from "What's the winter going to be like?" to "How does it look for next year?"

In that regard, the primary driver of the forecast is a weak El Nino pattern in the Pacific Ocean during the rest of the 2014-15 winter and through most of the spring season in 2015, followed by a pullback to a neutral Pacific during the summertime. And, if that scenario pans out, we are looking at favorable growing conditions in many primary crop areas.

The above comment is not a forecast, but it is a summary of how the weather has been in comparable years with similar conditions to right now in effect. Those comparable years are called "analog years"; and, at this time, the analog-year feature is as good as any to use to get an idea of what might be the situation.

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And, it's a promising one if you like big crops. For example, the July analog-year comparison for a weak El Nino easing into a neutral phase by summer features mostly normal to below-normal temperatures in the Midwest and below normal in the Northern Plains -- in other words, very similar to this past summer. The precipitation outlook is also crop-friendly in the Midwest, showing mostly above-normal amounts, with this same type of trend over the Northern Plains as well.

The pattern is less favorable in the Southern Plains, Delta and Southeast. These areas have above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation -- in other words, a very warm and mostly dry pattern during the heart of the growing season. That combination is potentially stressful to crops, of course.

Still, with the traditional Corn Belt sporting the combination that it does, it's hard to come up with a problematic scene for crops this coming summer. And, if farmers are asking these kinds of questions, it's likely the market is checking such details out as well.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(ES/AG/CZ)

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