Ag Weather Forum

Southwest Plains Still Need Precip

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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Water year precipitation (from October 1) is mostly running from 50 to 75 percent below normal in the main wheat-growing areas of Oklahoma, northern Texas and the Texas Panhandle. (National Weather Service graphic by Nick Scalise)

El Nino may be flexing its weather influence in the Far West, but the impact has not made it to the southwestern Plains wheat areas as yet. Using the National Weather Service "water year" precipitation period as a guide, wheat country in Oklahoma and Texas is more than one drink shy of average. (The "water year" runs from October 1 to October 1) So far this 2014-15 water year, we are seeing precipitation percentage totals for the southwestern Plains in the range of 50 to 75 percent below average. That's pretty dry, and it's likely been one reason why the area's wheat crop had lower ratings at the end of crop reporting season in November than it did last year. Wheat in Oklahoma and Texas both rated around 50 percent good to excellent. That's not bad, but, especially in Oklahoma, that rating total is some 20 percentage points below where the wheat stood in the ratings last year.

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What happens this coming week, with a big storm system showing up in the Far West and causing havoc along with being a heavy rain and snow maker? There will be some rain during the next five days; however, it does not appear to be that big an event--less than a half-inch precipitation is expected in the southwestern Plains. There is another Pacific Ocean-origin storm system that shows up on the maps for the last half of next week, and it's this one that has greater potential for being a precipitation-maker for the entire southern Plains region--not just the usually-favored sector east of Interstate 35.

You may ask, "What's the big worry if El Nino is in effect? Aren't we going to get several dependable rounds of these storms?" That may be true, but every storm that misses is one less chance at some activity; and, since around 40 percent of Oklahoma and more than 20 percent of Texas has either Severe Drought or worse in this week's Drought Monitor, I would like to see some action now rather than later if I want drought relief (and I do). I'm sure that producers in the southwestern Plains would agree.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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