Ag Weather Forum

Canadian Prairies Sees Slow Warming Pattern

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

We continue to see signs that the high latitude blocking pattern that lead to very cold weather during November is coming to an end. The models show the high latitude ridge moving to the other side of the North Pole within the next five days. This high latitude ridge is what forced the polar vortex well to the south in Canada for the last few weeks. It also contributed to building surface pressure which at this time of the year can be very cold.

The strong trough that is currently over north and east Canada is expected to weaken and shift north during coming days, following the high latitude ridge on its trek northward. This will lead to above-normal heights aloft and a more west to east flow in Canada which in turn will lead to warmer or even much warmer temperatures.

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We also take note of a strong trough located off the coast of North America at this time. This trough is helping to move the jet stream to move north and is allowing the warmer weather from the U.S. to move into the Canadian Prairies. These changes should lead to much warmer weather as soon as early next week.

However, there could be a delay in warming up the region as snow cover will slow the advance of warm weather and may contribute to more cloud cover. This could also slow the warming trend. However, so long as the mean trough remains to the west and the high latitude ridge remains well north, it is just a matter of time before the warmth develops in the region.

The next question then becomes how long will this warming trend last? There are already hints in some longer-term charts that the trough in the Pacific may move inland and undercut the developing warm ridge in central North America. This could mean a change back to cold weather for the second part of the month of December for the region. The El Nino in the Pacific Ocean is another wild card in the extended range forecast. Some believe that this could prevent another severe cold outbreak from developing. However, I believe that this feature would not be strong enough to prevent cold air from returning if the high latitude ridge redevelops. Stay tuned as the ability of the global forecast models to predict a return to a high latitude blocking pattern is limited, at best. This may mean that we will have short notice that the cold weather pattern might be redeveloping.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(ES)

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Bryce Anderson
12/5/2014 | 1:49 PM CST
Forecasts for the Philippines super typhoon "Ruby" (Hagupit) have its track running almost straight west across the Philippines into the South China Sea by Sunday Dec 7. It looks like a very low probability that this storm's track will make a dramatic swing to the northeast.
JERRY KOCHANIUK
12/4/2014 | 4:26 PM CST
Might super typhoon in Pacific have any effect if it moves north east?