Ag Weather Forum

Up and Down Temps for Prairies

Doug Webster
By  Doug Webster , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

As the latest siege of severe cold sets its sights on Western Canada, we see a weather pattern unfolding that may lead us into a fairly wild roller coaster temperature pattern during the next week to 10 days.

High latitude blocking has weakened significantly during the past several days but enough remains to land one more punch of low temperatures and snow across the Prairies into this weekend. As we move into early December, the evolving upper air pattern will show some high latitude blocking, but it is expected to be located near the North Pole in a fashion that does not push the polar vortex south enough to keep southwestern Canada in a non-stop cold pattern.

Very low temperatures will exist across central and northern Canada for much of the next 10 days, but a mild pattern featuring Pacific air will cover the western U.S. The Canadian Prairies will be stuck in the middle and will likely see a little of both air mass types as we go through the next 10 days.

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After a period of very cold weather into early Monday, we will likely see a quick warm-up later Monday into early Tuesday before a second punch of cold arrives for the middle of next week. Pacific air may then push across the Prairies to end next week sending temperatures to above normal.

Signs of El Nino remain across the Pacific; with blocking weaker now than it was during the middle of November, we are likely to see a little bit of cold and a little bit of mild weather since neither of these potentially deciding weather regimes are dominant at this time.

If at some point down the road high latitude blocking becomes a more deciding factor, then we could easily see frigid weather return. However, on the other side of the coin, if El Nino grows a little stronger during the coming weeks, a mild Pacific flow could take hold.

You may want to keep your score card handy during the next month as some rather significant temperature fluctuations take place across western and southwestern Canada.

Some healthy amounts of snow are likely during the next few days from central and southern Alberta to southern Saskatchewan as upslope conditions combine with moisture pushing across the Rockies. A second snow threat for the Prairies next Tuesday does not look as fruitful at this point.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

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