Ag Weather Forum

Record World Warmth in October

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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October 2014 blended land and sea surface temperature percentiles. Many global areas were either much warmer than average or record warmest. (Graphic courtesy of NOAA)

Following are highlights of the NOAA Global Climate Report for October. Some of the temperature departures from normal are impressive for the far-above-normal warming. The full report with graphics is at this link: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/…

GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for October 2014 was the highest on record for October, at 0.74 deg C (1.33 deg F) above the 20th century average of 14.0 deg C (57.1 deg F).

The global land surface temperature was 1.05 deg C (1.89 deg F) above the 20th century average of 9.3 deg C (48.7 deg F)—the fifth highest for October on record.

For the ocean, the October global sea surface temperature was 0.62 deg C (1.12 deg F) above the 20th century average of 15.9 deg C (60.6 deg F) and the highest for October on record.

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January-October period (year-to-date) was 0.68 deg C (1.22 deg F) above the 20th century average of 14.1 deg C (57.4 deg F). The first ten months of 2014 were the warmest such period on record.

With records dating back to 1880, the global temperature averaged across the world's land and ocean surfaces for October 2014 was the highest on record for the month, at 0.74 deg C (1.33 deg F) above the 20th century average. This also marks the third consecutive month and fifth of the past six with a record high global temperature for its respective month (July was fourth highest).

The record high October temperature was driven by warmth across the globe over both the land and ocean surfaces and was fairly evenly distributed between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The Southern Hemisphere was record warm overall with a record high land surface temperature for the month. The Northern Hemisphere was third warmest on record for October, with a record high average sea surface temperature.

Globally, the average land surface temperature was the fifth highest on record for October, at 1.05 deg C (1.89 deg F) above the 20th century average. Record warmth in much of southern South America and large parts of southern and western Australia contributed to the record high average land surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, record warmth was also observed in parts of southern Europe, the western coastal regions of the United States, and much of Far East Russia. On the other hand, parts of central Siberia observed temperatures 4-5 deg C (7-9 deg F) below average.

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data):

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Australia observed its highest nationally-averaged maximum temperature for October since official records began in 1910, at 2.76 deg C (4.97 deg F) above the 1961--1990 average. Combined with the eighth highest October minimum temperature on record, the mean October temperature (average of maximum and minimum temperatures) for the country was the second highest on record at 1.91 deg C (3.44 deg F) above average, behind only 1988. The warmth was notable for its spread across Australia; New South Wales, South Australia, and Western Australia all had record high mean temperatures for the month while Victoria had its second highest.

Austria had its seventh warmest October since national records began in 1767, with a temperature 2.2 deg C (4.0 deg F) higher than the 1981-2010 average. According to ZAMG, even if observed monthly temperatures during November and December are average, 2014 will still be the warmest year in the country's 248-year period of record.

Germany observed its third warmest October since national records began in 1881. The temperature was 2.9 deg C (5.2 deg F) higher than the 1961-1990 average and 2.7 deg C (4.9 deg F) higher than the more recent 1981-2010 average.

The October temperature for Norway was 1.8 deg C (3.2 deg F) higher than the 1981--2010 average. Parts of Rogeland and some areas in Ostafjells observed temperatures 3-4 deg C (5-7 deg F) above their average.

Denmark had its second warmest October since national records began in 1874, just 0.1 deg C (0.2 deg F) cooler than the record warmest October of 2006.

October 2014 in the United Kingdom tied as the 10th warmest October since national records began in 1910, at 1.6 deg C (2.9 deg F) above the 1981-2010 average. The October temperature for England was 1.9 deg C (3.4 deg F) higher than average, tying as the seventh highest temperature on record for October.

Switzerland had its fourth warmest October in the country's 150-year period of record. Measurement stations in Lugano, Locarno, Sion, and Geneva all reported record high temperatures for October, with Sion and Geneva 3 deg C (5 deg F) warmer than average for the month.

With records dating back to 1900, France also had its fourth warmest October, with a temperature 2.4 deg C (4.3 deg F) higher than the 1981--2010 average.

Sweden was warmer than average during October, with the southern half of the country experiencing temperatures 2-4 deg C (4-7 deg F) above their October averages. On October 28, the daily average temperature in Stockholm was 14.2 deg C (57.6 deg F), the highest daily average observed so late in the year since records began in 1756 (258 years ago).

The global oceans were the warmest on record for October, with a temperature that averaged 0.62 deg C (1.12 deg F) higher than the 20th century average. This marks the sixth month in a row (beginning in May 2014) that the global ocean temperature broke its monthly temperature record. October 2014 also ties with June 2014 for the third highest ocean temperature departure on average for any month on record; the second highest departure from average occurred in August 2014 and the all-time highest occurred just last month.

These record and near-record warm global sea surface temperatures have all occurred in the absence of El Nino, a large-scale warming of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that generally occurs every five to seven years on average. However, there is close to a 60 percent chance for El Nino to officially develop during the Northern Hemisphere winter, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The potential El Nino is favored to be weak and last into Northern Hemisphere spring 2015. This forecast focuses on the ocean surface temperatures between 5 deg N and 5 deg S latitude and 170 deg W to 120 deg W longitude.

The first ten months of 2014 (January-October) were the warmest such period since record keeping began in 1880, with a combined global land and ocean average surface temperature 0.68 deg C (1.22 deg F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.4°F), surpassing the previous record set in 1998 and tied in 2010 by 0.02 deg C (0.04 deg F). 2014 is currently on track to be the warmest year on record.

The most recent 12-month period, November 2013-October 2014, broke the record (set just last month) for the all-time warmest 12-month period in the 135-year period of record, at 0.68 deg C (1.22 deg F) above average, with November 2013 and May, June, August, September, and October 2014 all record warm for their respective months. (originally published as 0.69 deg C, corrected 20 Nov 2014)

For January-October, the average global sea surface temperature was also record high, beating the previous record of 1998 by 0.03 deg C (0.05 deg F). The average global land surface temperature tied with 1998 and 2002 as the fourth highest on record. Record warmth for the year-to-date was particularly notable across much of northern and western Europe, parts of Far East Russia, and large areas of the northeastern and western equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is also notable that record warmth was observed in at least some areas of every continent and major ocean basin around the world.

OCTOBER PRECIPITATION

As is typical, October precipitation anomalies varied significantly around the world.

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data):

Most of Japan observed above-average rainfall during October, with much of eastern Japan reporting precipitation that was significantly above average. Typhoons Vongfong and Phanfone, which struck Japan within about a week of one another, contributed to the high precipitation totals.

Very Severe Cyclone Hudhud struck the coast of southeastern India in mid-October, bringing heavy rainfall to the region. One localized area in the state of Andhra Pradesh reported a 24-hour rainfall total of 15 inches (380 mm).

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Comments

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FRANK FULWIDER
12/1/2014 | 7:32 AM CST
Jay,have you checked the price of corn,wheat ,beans?Globle record crop of grains. The sky's not falling yet. Where people are hungry its not only the climates fault. You have farming methods, gov. regulations,money and transportation problems
Jay Mcginnis
11/29/2014 | 1:32 PM CST
Yes, step out on the back porch and read the thermometer, open your refrigerator and see all the food,,,,,, hey guys its called "GLOBAL" climate change and "WORLD" hunger for a reason but to see this you first need to pull your heads out of the sand! We aren't in Kansas anymore!
FRANK FULWIDER
11/28/2014 | 7:36 AM CST
We've had month after month of 10 to 20 degree days of colder then normal with a few days of normal through in ,at the end of the month the NOAA says warmest month on record. Do we believe them or step outside ?
Bryce Anderson
11/26/2014 | 3:02 PM CST
US info discussed in blog comment section Nov 12. But one highlight--US Oct temp was the 4th-warmest on record.
Jay Mcginnis
11/26/2014 | 12:08 PM CST
Just had dinner so cross off global hunger as well!!!!!
Bonnie Dukowitz
11/26/2014 | 5:57 AM CST
Solar powered dog dish heater don't work at night Jay? Maybe you could get a grant to study why.
Jay Mcginnis
11/25/2014 | 7:34 AM CST
Dog dish froze again this morning, how can there be global warming when the only place in the world that matters is my postal zip code????
Bonnie Dukowitz
11/25/2014 | 5:50 AM CST
Don't know the world wide averages, however only 8 deg. F. here this morning. The ground has been frozen for a month already. We can usually accomplish some field work until Thanksgiving. According to the boob tube, it has been one of the coldest Novembers on record.
Jay Mcginnis
11/24/2014 | 5:05 AM CST
Its funny you didn't mention the fall elections, US voted that there is no global warming!!!!
JONATHON EATON
11/24/2014 | 12:43 AM CST
It has been a warm November in North Dakota! Or maybe not.
DUSTIN RICKERTSEN
11/23/2014 | 10:55 PM CST
Its funny you didn't mention much about the United States in your report. I'm sure at least in Iowa we had one of the coolest summers on record. Are you sure the NOAA incorporated some of the below normal temps in the Midwest in this report?????