Ag Weather Forum

Low Confidence in Weather Outlook for Western Canada

Doug Webster
By  Doug Webster , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

The calendar says we are still in the final month of meteorological fall, but we all know winter has taken over across much of North America in grand scale during the middle portion of November. Record low temperatures and record snow cover extent make our senses think it is later December or January.

The course our weather patterns have taken during the past two weeks do not appear to be the course we will be on during the next two weeks, according to the computer models that most weather scientists use each day. Changes are blowing in the wind as the strong high latitude blocking is currently decaying. We most likely will see a pattern a little more in keeping with late November during the next week.

The cold air making machine is breaking down, at least for now, and a more progressive west-to-east weather pattern is likely to bring moderating temperatures as well as a couple of snow chances during the next week. Temperatures are expected to be closer to normal by this weekend into next week. Compared to the past week, temperatures will feel like a heat wave.

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The forecast for the remainder of the month is not quite etched in stone though, as not all model forecasts are on board for a more relaxed late-fall weather pattern. Some versions of the many runs of each model are hinting that somewhat of a return of blocking patterns and very cold weather could take place later this month.

Other model versions are not on board with the cold scenario and leave us with a cautious forecast for less cold later this month. This winter's forecast is likely to be more complex than last, as there are more potential players in the mix. An El Nino of modest proportions appears to be in place which throws in the potential of some mild, dry conditions in at some point. Blocking reared its ugly head 10 days ago and could return without too much warning turning mild breezes to frigid winds.

The large pool of anomalously warm ocean water through the Gulf of Alaska is not present this year and may have been a contributor to a nearly endless western North America ridge and cold of last winter. The differences from last winter leave us with more questions than answers and this may be one of those years where we roll with the punches.

Weather conditions may be quite, if not highly, variable during the next few months as El Nino plays a tug-of-war with periods when some blocking develops. The variability seen already during November may be a clue as to where the winter weather will take us.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

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