Ag Weather Forum

Weather Pattern Hitting Canada Similar to Last Year

Doug Webster
By  Doug Webster , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

As October turned into November, all seemed quiet on the western front with a weather pattern dotted with El Nino type characteristics from North to South America. Milder-than-normal Pacific air had been flowing in across the Canadian Prairies and helped harvest to finish nearly on schedule.

Nearly all, if not all, of our computer weather models were forecasting a continuation of a mostly benign weather pattern featuring mostly mild weather as a west-to-east jet stream flow stayed put. These forecasts seemed locked to this pattern through November.

What a difference a week can make. Beginning this past weekend, hints of change started to show up as all of our model products made a turn toward high latitude blocking across the Northern Hemisphere. The advance warning was about as close to none as can be.

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During the mid to late October period, the main polar vortex was making a home near the north coast of Russia on the Asian side of the Northern Hemisphere, but during the first few days of November this vortex started to shift toward the North Pole and has since started to move into northern Canada. These were probably the hints that change was coming.

Super Typhoon Nuri has been racing northeastward through the western Pacific during recent days and is due to become an extremely intense gale through the Bering Sea during the coming days. This event is likely to push lots of warmth northward into Alaska with the downstream effect being the development of a trough through central North America.

As you guessed it, the polar vortex is likely to make a trip south to southernmost Canada by this time next week and bring a big turnaround in the weather across much of Canada and the U.S. A weather pattern much like we saw a lot of the time last winter will evolve quickly during the coming days, helped by blocking across northwest Canada and Alaska and Greenland sending a surge of arctic air southward through western and central Canada into the central and eventually eastern U.S.

The Canadian Prairies can plan on seeing a major temperature drop Sunday into Monday possibly lasting through most of next week. Readings should fall to well below normal and some record cold is not out of the question. Some snow may precede and accompany the arrival of the arctic blast laying down a snow cover that only will help intensify the cold.

In earlier blogs we have spoken about the influence that blocking has on our weather and the next week will be a prime example of that. High latitude blocking can completely overwhelm and disrupt what appears to be a well-established mild weather pattern with little notice. It should be noted that as quickly as blocking is developing, it can also disappear fast. While it looks like winter is racing into town, soon it is entirely possible that 10 days from now mild breezes could be again flowing across the Prairies.

Based on the past week, confidence of what things may look like in 10 days have fallen to the basement. The key to the pattern coming later this month will be if the blocking hangs on or if it breaks down. At this point the best thing to do is batten down the hatches and be ready for change at nearly any time.

Doug Webster can be reach at doug.webster@dtn.com

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