Ag Weather Forum

Possible Wet Early Nov In S. Plains

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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We have some forecast model disagreement for an early November storm system in the southern Plains that will command attention these first few days of November. During the Sunday through Wednesday time frame, upper-level low pressure (trough) will move from the West Coast across the central U.S. This trough will interact with a cold front over the southern half of the country to bring either "some" or "heavy" precipitation to the southern Plains.

The U.S. and European forecast models have some notable disagreement on the speed of the western U.S. trough as it moves eastward. The U.S. model has the trough moving rather quickly through the Plains and into the Delta and mid-South during the Sunday-Wednesday period. The European model, on the other hand, has the trough moving at a slower pace. This is an important difference--because a slower progression of the trough would draw in more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the western half of Texas, and thus would mean some significant precipitation of at least one inch in liquid amounts--possibly more--for western Texas and at least the southern half of the Texas Panhandle. Note that I said one inch in "liquid amounts"--because with a cold front in the region, at least some light snow is not out of the question.

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Another wrinkle in this scenario is that the eastern Pacific Ocean is still an active tropical weather system producer. We experienced the effects of that attribute back in September when a series of eastern Pacific systems--Norbert, Odile, and Polo--contributed to heavy rain in the central U.S. and delayed the start of fall harvest. This time, Tropical Storm Vance is a potential player in the forecast, with a possible addition of tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific to the party. That moisture helps to fill the atmosphere and contributes both to a higher likelihood of precipitation and heavier potential amounts.

Finally, this activity is starting in the Far West, with rain and snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California. This entire package of unsettled weather is a characteristic of El Nino--which in our DTN Ag Weather group's opinion has been in effect for some time now.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(ES/AG/CZ)

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Gordon Stebens
11/4/2014 | 11:42 AM CST
Very nice needed 2-inch here in Northwest Oklahoma last night. Winter wheat plants are mostly all up and looks good. Some of the area farmers their wheat is just coming up out of the ground and some are getting ready to turn cattle out on the earlier planted wheat.