Ag Weather Forum

World Wheat Moisture Issues

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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It's worth a few minutes to mention some possible areas of concern in the world wheat production scene. We're certainly not in danger of running out of wheat--production in 2014/15 is pegged by USDA worldwide at more than 720 million metric tons with a world carryout of almost 193 mmt. Still, we have seen in the not-too-distant past that if problems show up at the right time in wheat, there can be a ripple effect in the markets across the grain trade. Here are some areas that deserve attention:

AUSTRALIA--production estimates are being revised downward during the late spring in the southern hemisphere primarily because of a drier trend in South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. These states in September received on average only 45 percent of their normal rainfall. Plus, some record high temperatures have occurred, which also cause stress to the wheat crop ahead of harvest.

RUSSIA--it's very early in the wheat production cycle, just as it is in North America winter wheat areas. However, there is a drier trend to start out the season. A summary of September precipitation compiled by Informa Economics shows that Russia winter wheat areas had an average of just 65 percent of normal precipitation, and Russia spring wheat areas totaled less than half--just 49 percent--of normal precipitation. There's a long way to go of course, but this is of some concern. There have also been comments made in wire service reports which compare this dry September to the same month in 2009--and the summer following, in 2010, was the summer that featured the drought-enhanced fires around Moscow.

UKRAINE--major wheat areas of Ukraine join Russia in being dry over the past few weeks. Total precipitation for the month of September was 70 percent of normal. While that's not bone-dry, it's still a fair amount below the typical total.

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BRAZIL--while there has been much attention given to the onset of rain in the soybean belt of Brazil, and the chance for that moisture to expand into the coffee and sugarcane areas, there is also a possible development on the other side of the rainfall ledger in the southern Brazil state of Rio Grande do Sul. This state's wheat crop has gotten mighty wet recently with more heavy rain on the way during the coming weekend. This could cause some quality issues in the Brazil wheat crop as a result.

These international areas bear keeping track of, but there are also several locations in the U.S. which may come under scrutiny as the rest of this season moves on:

MIDWEST---planting of soft red winter wheat is noticeably behind schedule in Illinois and Missouri. Illinois is 41 percent planted as of Sunday October 26 (34 percentage points below the average 75 percent) and Missouri is only 38 percent planted (17 points behind the average 55 percent). Indiana and Michigan are lagging their SRW planting rates by around ten percentage points each (Indiana 67 versus 75, Michigan 77 versus 86). The reason for this delay? Heavy rain during early and mid-October, along with some fairly cool temperatures caused extensive disruptions to planting.

SOUTHERN PLAINS (Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas)--these states have a big difference in oil moisture levels. In Kansas, the western third of the state--which has been the driest over the several years--generally has topsoil moisture supplies rated around 40 percent short to very short. It's drier in Oklahoma, where topsoil moisture supplies are rated 56 percent short to very short. And in the Texas Panhandle, topsoil is still in the range of 55-60 percent short to very short.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---Informa Economics places total precipitation for month of October to date at seven percent above normal in Washington, but 40 percent below normal in Oregon. For the year (based on a start date of July 1), Washington precipitation is listed as four percent below normal but Oregon's is pegged at 45 percent below normal.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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