Ag Weather Forum

NOAA: Record-Warm September

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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NOAA's September Global Climate Summary features--as has been the case several other times this year--a new all-time historic record-keeping warm value for world temperatures.--Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

October 20, 2014

The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for September 2014 was the highest for the month since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA scientists. It also marked the 38th consecutive September with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average global temperature for September occurred in 1976.

This monthly summary from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides to government, the business sector, academia and the public to support informed decision making.

Global temperature highlights: September

Land and Ocean Combined: The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for September 2014 was record highest for the month at 60.30 deg F (15.72 deg C) or 1.30 deg F (0.72 deg C) above the 20th century average of 59.0 deg F (15.0 deg C). The margin of error is +/- 0.22 deg F (0.12 deg C). With the exception of February, every month to date in 2014 has been among its four warmest on record, with May, June, August and September all record warm.

Land Only: The September global land temperature was the sixth highest on record for September at 1.60 deg F (0.89 deg C) above the 20th century average of 53.6 deg F (12.0 deg C), with a margin of error of +/- 0.43 deg F (0.24 deg C). Warmer-than-average temperatures were evident over most of the global land surface, except for central Russia, some areas in eastern and northern Canada, and a small region in Namibia. Record warmth was notable in much of northwestern Africa, coastal regions of southeastern South America, southwestern Australia, parts of the Middle East, and regions of southeastern Asia.

Some national land temperature highlights include: Ocean Only: The September global sea surface temperature was 1.19 deg F (0.66 deg C) above the 20th century average of 61.1 deg F (16.2 deg C), the highest on record for September. This also marked the highest departure from average for any month since records began in 1880, breaking the previous record of 1.17 deg F (0.65 deg C) set just one month earlier in August. This is the third time in 2014 this all-time record has been broken. The margin of error is +/- 0.07 deg F (0.04 deg C). Record warmth was observed in parts of every major ocean basin, particularly notable in the northeastern and equatorial Pacific Ocean.

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The September maximum temperature for Australia was 3.65 deg F (2.03 deg C) higher than the 1961-1990 average, the fifth highest for the month since national records began in 1910. The state of Western Australia was record warm at 4.95 deg F (2.75 deg C) above average, breaking the previous record set in 1980 by 0.79 deg F (0.44 deg C). Tasmania reported its second highest September maximum temperature on record and Victoria its seventh highest.

Many countries in Europe were warmer than average during September, including Norway, Germany, Finland, Austria, and France. Denmark reported its seventh warmest September since national records began in 1874, while the United Kingdom had its fourth warmest in the country’s 115-year period of record.

Although El Nino conditions were not officially present across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during September 2014, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center favors El Nino to begin in the next one to two months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

Snow and ice highlights: September

Arctic: On September 17, Arctic sea ice reached its annual minimum extent at 1.94 million square miles, the sixth smallest in the 1979-2014 satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This was 463,000 square miles below the 1981-2010 average, but 622,000 square miles larger than the record small minimum that occurred in 2012. Between the annual maximum extent that occurred in March and the minimum extent, the Arctic lost 3.82 million square miles of ice during the 2014 melt season, the ninth most on record but the least since 2006.

The average September Arctic sea ice extent was 2.04 million square miles, 480,000 square miles (19.02 percent) below the 1981–2010 average and the sixth smallest on record. Much-below-average sea ice was observed in the Laptev, Kara and Chukchi Seas; above-average sea ice was observed in the Barents Sea. Near-average ice extent in the Canadian Archipelago caused the Northeast Passage to remain closed, unlike recent Septembers when the sea route was navigable by ship.

Antarctic: On September 22, Antarctic sea ice reached its annual maximum extent at 7.76 million square miles, 595,000 square miles above the 1981-2010 average and the largest maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in the 1979-2014 satellite record. This beat the previous record set just last year by approximately 216,000 square miles and marked the third consecutive year that a new record maximum sea ice extent has been set in the Antarctic.

The average September Antarctic sea ice extent was 7.73 million square miles, 480,000 square miles (6.60 percent) above the 1981-2010 average. This was the largest September average Antarctic sea ice extent on record and the largest average Antarctic sea ice extent for any month. This bested the previous September Antarctic sea ice extent record set last year by approximately 80,000 square miles. Much-above-average sea ice was observed in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean areas.

Precipitation highlights: September

As is typical, extreme wet and extreme dry conditions were scattered across the globe. Select notable events include the following:

High pressure systems not only brought warmth to the United Kingdom during September, but also record dryness. The country had its driest September since records began in 1910, with just 20 percent of average rainfall for the month. Besides breaking the record itself, this rainfall deficit is particularly notable because the preceding eight-month period of January-August was the wettest such period on record for the country.

The Southwest Indian Monsoon began its annual withdrawal in September, but the withdrawal began later than normal. From June 1 to September 30, India as a whole received 88 percent of average seasonal rainfall for the period. All regions were below average, with Northwest India experiencing the greatest precipitation deficit, receiving 79 percent of average rainfall. Most of the below-average rainfall for India can be attributed to below-average precipitation during June and early July. In early September, the northern state of Jammu and Kashmir, along with the neighboring region in Pakistan, experienced intense flooding from downpours that brought over a foot of rain. More than 400 residents perished due to the disaster.

Global temperature highlights: Year-to-date

Land and Ocean Combined: January-September tied with 1998 as the warmest such period on record, with a combined global land and ocean average surface temperature 1.22 deg F (0.68 deg C) above the 20th century average of 57.5 deg F (14.1 deg C). If 2014 maintains this temperature departure from average for the remainder of the year, it will be the warmest year on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.20 deg F (0.11 deg C).

Land Only: The January-September worldwide land surface temperature was 1.75 deg F (0.97 deg C) above the 20th century average, the sixth warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.41 deg F (0.23 deg C).

Ocean Only: The global ocean surface temperature for the year to date was 1.03 deg F (0.57 deg C) above average, the warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/-0.09 deg F (0.05 deg C).

Full report and graphics are at this link: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/…

(ES/AG/CZ)

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Comments

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Jay Mcginnis
10/31/2014 | 7:29 AM CDT
Has anyone checked to see if the companies producing these thermometers has ties with Al Gore?
Unknown
10/22/2014 | 11:00 AM CDT
What is to be made of the large Antarctica sea ice? It appears to me that arctic ice is moving from one pole to the other, which I believe I read once could be due to nothing more than the earth's axis varying slightly which occurs from time to time. I am definitely NOT a meteorologist, or climatologist, but do try and read about weather. Just curious on thoughts.
Bryce Anderson
10/22/2014 | 9:33 AM CDT
Regarding temperature monitoring, the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has a detailed review of temperature questions on its web site in the "Climate Monitoring" section at the NCDC home page. About the issue of whether temperature records show an Urban Heat Island bias, the NCDC FAQ article directly addresses that question. Here is the answer: "We identified which GHCN (Global Historical Climate Network) stations were rural and which were urban. Then we created global temperature time series from the rural only stations and compared that to our full dataset. The result was that the two showed almost identical time series (actually the rural showed a little bit more warming) so there apparently was no lingering urban heat island bias in the adjusted GHCN dataset." More information is at this link: http://tinyurl.com/mkpkf8c
Curt Zingula
10/22/2014 | 6:59 AM CDT
Clay, I too asked Bryce about satellites. He defiantly referred back to the accuracy of urban weather stations rather than answer whether or not the satellites are accurate. NOAA has closed some 600 weather stations reportedly for the reason you asserted. However, NOAA supposedly has models that correct for rooftop heating and parking lot heating (where many weather stations are found).
Bryce Anderson
10/22/2014 | 5:59 AM CDT
This topic has been discussed before in this space. Thermometer placement has been verified as fairly representing what is going on in the atmosphere.
H. Clay Daulton
10/21/2014 | 8:07 PM CDT
Aren't there problems with urban encroachment on many global temperature taking thermometers? I know the one for Fresno was once advertised to have been moved south about 10 or 20 miles; but the heat island of Fresno normally blows in that direction. Isn't global atmospheric temperature better measured by satellites (which do not show such dire increases as described in the article)?