Ag Weather Forum

Western Canada Sees Warm, Dry Period Developing

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

Another period of very warm and mostly dry weather appears to be setting up for the Canadian Prairies crop belt at this time. The west will turn warmer today while eastern areas may trend cooler during the next day or two before warmer weather returns. The medium range forecast shows high confidence of mostly dry and warm weather for the weekend and early next week. This is nearly ideal for the harvest of crops in the region, so long as the ground is firm enough to support the equipment.

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The longer range outlook is a little more uncertain today. The U.S. computer model shows a trough deepening as it moves east across the region during the eight-to-10-day time frame. This would suggest a period of wet weather followed by at least a brief cold snap. The eastern areas will be the coldest and wettest. The European computer model covering the same timeframe is not as aggressive with this trough and therefore does not show any significant rainfall or cold weather at the end of the 10-day period.

I am leaning more towards the European model as it concerns this timeframe. The lack of high latitude blocking supports a continued lower amplitude flow for Western Canada. This suggests warmer weather and less rain chances which is what the European model is forecasting. This should allow for continued favorable harvest weather through the 10-day period.

We continue to watch the high latitudes of Canada and the Arctic Circle for any signs that blocking may return. This will be of increasing concern as we move through fall and into winter. High latitude ridges tend to send the polar vortex southward and lead to cold weather for much of southern Canada. This ridge has been absent from the forecast models for a while and hopefully it will stay away, at least until the harvest is complete.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

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