Ag Weather Forum
Why El Nino Is Likely Here
If you go by official pronouncements, El Nino in the Pacific Ocean has not developed. In the U.S., the NOAA Climate Prediction Center sums its assessment up this way:
"ENSO-neutral conditions continue. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. (above-normal temperatures) El Nino is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015."
That's the CPC comment. Here's what the Australia Bureau of Meteorology said the week of October 7:
"Tropical Pacific Ocean ENSO indicators remain within the neutral range, having failed to maintain sustained values typical of El Nino. However, given the persistent warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean, models continue to suggest an El Nino remains possible during the last quarter of 2014."
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However, despite those official comments, there is enough going on in the weather scene in the U.S., South America, and Australia, to strongly suggest that El Nino is already in place and having an influence on weather conditions. Here's the list:
1) As the accompanying graphic shows, the Southern Plains has had consistent rainfall during late summer and early autumn. Parts of Kansas are drought-free. There is no occurrence of drought level 4 -- Exceptional Drought -- anywhere in the state. And, drought level 3 -- Extreme Drought -- is at this point confined to the far southwestern corner of the state. Farther south, we have seen improvement in Oklahoma and Texas as well. In the western half of Texas, short-term drought is almost entirely gone.
2) Increased Midwest rain. Research on El Nino by Craig Cogil, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, indicates that El Nino fall seasons have near to above normal precipitation in Iowa for weak to moderate events; and that moderate to strong El Nino seasons have above-normal precipitation statewide.
3) Tropical weather system development patterns. This season has featured a distinct lack of hurricane or tropical storm formation in the Atlantic Basin, while the eastern Pacific has been very active. Here in the second week of October, the Atlantic Basin has a system called Gonzalo taking shape -- only the seventh named storm system of the season. Compare that to the eastern Pacific, where the letter S (Simon) was used around October 1. And back in September, there were heavy rains in the southwestern U.S. and the southern Plains with a string of Pacific storms contributing -- Norbert; Odile; and Polo.
3) South America rainfall split. El Nino has a high correlation to heavy rain in southern Brazil and Argentina. We are seeing those relationships play out, with well above normal rainfall in the southern Brazil provinces of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, as well as the central Argentina crop belt. Mato Grosso, in central Brazil, has a looser relationship with El Nino; however, conditions have been very dry there with soybean planting falling behind average because of dry soils.
4) Dryness in Australia. This feature is the other side of the heavier than normal rainfall relationship in South America; when El Nino is in effect, Australia turns drier. And, during the first part of October, four of the top five wheat-producing areas of Australia--Western Australia, Southern Australia, New South Wales, and Victoria--have taken in less than half their normal precipitation. This is an important time in the Australia wheat cycle--it's the southern hemisphere version of April--and wheat needs the moisture for production.
For all these reasons, in our opinion at DTN Ag Weather, El Nino is here and flexing its influence, despite the official rulings.
Bryce
Twitter @BAndersonDTN
(ES)
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