Ag Weather Forum

North-South Split On Corn Harvest

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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The following paragraph from this week's Iowa state ag department crop progress report is worth noting:

"With almost all of Iowa’s corn acreage in or beyond the dent stage, corn mature reached 79 percent, 6 days behind the five-year average. Moisture content of all corn in the field, at 27 percent, continued to delay harvest. Only 5 percent of corn has been harvested so far, 3 weeks behind the normal pace. Seventy-six percent of the corn crop was reported in good to excellent condition. With almost all of the soybean acreage turning color, 85 percent of the crop was dropping leaves or beyond, just behind average. Soybean harvest was 9 percent complete, the lowest percentage harvested by this date in over 30 years. Seventy-four percent of the soybean crop was in good to excellent condition."

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So, that's the history of this weather pattern. It's been a slow start to harvest. The only feature that does not bring an exact comparison to the extremely-delayed harvest of five years ago in 2009 is that there is no snow in the Corn Belt like we saw back then.

But, now we come to the forecast pattern for the next week to ten days, and here is where the trade may do some corn production arithmetic. The next week features some heavy rains over the south-central part of the U.S., with Interstate 70 as the approximate division line between heavy rain and lighter rain. And, using the USDA World Ag Outlook Board breakdown of major corn production states, there is a majority of U.S. corn production which is on the drier side of the forecast. Here's the breakdown in production percentage that is north of the heavier forecast rainfall:

Iowa 18 percent Illinois 12 percent (estimating that 70 percent of the 17 percent Illinois share of US corn output is north of I-70) Nebraska 12 Minnesota 10 Indiana 5 (estimate that 70 percent of Indiana's 4 percent share of US production is north of I-70) Ohio 4 percent South Dakota 4 percent Wisconsin 4 percent North Dakota 2 percent Michigan 2 percent

Adding those percentages together, the total is 73 percent of the total U.S. corn crop which is north of the heaviest rainfall forecast over the next five days. And a drier 6-10 day time frame adds to that more-favorable harvest prospect.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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