Ag Weather Forum

Climate Change Scorecard

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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A review of 15 extreme weather events around the world during 2013 done by the American Meteorological Society finds that climate change was an identified influencing factor in half of them--not an identified influencing factor in five--at least partially in one--and possible but uncertain in one. The events were summarized by Brian Kahn of the research organization Climate Central and are listed below:

New Zealand Drought January 2013: Yes. The first three months of 2013 saw the worst drought in more than 40 years for New Zealand's North Island. Agricultural losses totaled more than $1.3 billion, with losses expected to continue for the next two years. Climate change likely increased the risk of dry weather in the region.

California Drought January through December 2013: Yes and No. California’s driest 12-month period on record occurred during 2013-14. Global warming likely increased the probability of certain large-scale atmospheric conditions such as the "ridiculously resilient ridge" that blocked storms from crossing the state and fueled the drought but some uncertainties remain.

Southern Europe's Wet Winter January through March 2013: No. Winter 2013 was the second wettest since 1948 in southern Europe. However, natural climate patterns and shifts were the main drivers behind the copious snow and rain.

Pyrenees Heavy Snow January-June 2013: No. Snow in the Pyrenees Mountains, which separate Spain and France, has been significantly declining since 1950. However, 2013 bucked the trend with up to 13 feet of snow on the ground above 6,800 feet during late April and early May. Despite the freakishly high snowfall totals, climate change didn't appear to have an influence.

Australia Extreme Heat May-August 2013: Yes. The period from May-August was particularly hot for Australia, pushing the country to its warmest year on record. The annual average temperature was about 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, besting the previous record set in 2005 by 0.3 degree F. Climate change likely increased the odds of extreme heat.

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Seasons of Extreme Precipitation in the U.S. May-December 2013: Yes. 2013 was a year of precipitation extremes in the U.S. with a wet spring for the Upper Midwest and Southern Plains, a wet summer for the Northeast, a wet fall for the Northern Plains and a dry year for California. A mix of natural variability and climate change (with a pinch of inherent randomness) helped drive these large-scale precipitation patterns.

Central Europe Heavy Rain late May-early June 2013: No. Storms brought intense rains to central Europe at the end of May, with some locations getting as much rain in a day as they receive on average in a single month. Other factors such as late spring snowmelt helped boost flood levels, but climate change is unlikely to have played a role.

Western Europe's Hot, Dry Summer June-August 2013: Yes. The average temperature for western Europe was 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal during the summer of 2013. That's slightly cooler than the scorching summers of 2003 and 2010, but researchers found climate change was still a driver of high temperatures.

South Korea Heat Wave June-August 2013: Yes. South Korea had a hot summer, with overnight lows running 4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal and daytime highs averaging 3.4 degrees F above normal. Researchers found that "extreme hot summers like the 2013 event have become 10 times more probable" due to climate change.

Northern India Extreme Rain June 2013: Yes. More than 100,000 people were impacted by heavy rains and subsequent flooding in northern India during the second half of June. Evidence points to climate change having a hand.

Japan Heat Wave July-August 2013: Yes. During the summer, 143 weather stations across Japan set records for daily high temperatures. The average temperature for July and August was also 2.2 degrees F above normal. Climate change played a "significant role" in upping the odds of the hot weather.

Eastern China Hot and Dry Summer July-August 2013: Yes. July-August 2013 was the warmest such period in central eastern China since 1951. The average temperature for the period was as much as 5.4 degrees F higher than normal and daily temperatures topped 110 degrees F in some locations. Climate change helped ratchet up the odds of this extreme heat.

Colorado Heavy Rains September 2013: No. Heavy rains inundated northeast Colorado in mid-September. Up to 17 inches of rain fell over 5 days in the region, causing an estimated 2-Billion dollars in damage. While climate change is increasing the odds of extreme precipitation events in the U.S., one computer model suggests that climate change actually made the "biblical" rains that drenched Colorado less likely.

South Dakota's Early Season Blizzard October 2013: Uncertain. Up to 58 inches of snow fell on South Dakota in early October, smashing records for the month at a number of locations across the state. The storm also killed tens of thousands of cattle. However, scientists aren't certain that climate change had an impact on the storm.

Cyclone Christian October 2013: No. In late October, a storm known as Cyclone Christian in Germany or the St. Jude Storm in the U.K. slammed into Europe. It brought winds in excess of 120 mph, but climate change didn't play a role in increasing the storm's intensity.

The full timeline of these events is at this link: http://tinyurl.com/…

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(SK/CZ)

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Comments

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Jay Mcginnis
10/7/2014 | 7:36 AM CDT
Bryce, I just read an article saying that ocean temperatures off Australia and New Zealand were much higher then originally thought, would that produce much more rain for the US?